UDINE. There manufacturing in the province of Udine in the first quarter of 2024 it still serves a weak global trend and slowdown in domestic demand. This is what emerges from the processing of data from the survey conducted by the Confindustria Udine Research Office on a representative sample of associated companies (two thirds of the total by number of employees).
In detail, in the first quarter of 2024 industrial production in the province of Udine grew by 2.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, but decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year.
The decisive factor contributed to the trend decline decline in sales in Italy, -6.7%, while those abroad increased, +1.1%. Positive signals come from the use of production plants, which went from 79% in the fourth quarter of ’23 to 80.2% in the first quarter of ’24.
In companies’ expectations, 88% believe that production will remain stable in the coming months. In any case, the share of companies predicting an improvement remains higher, 10%, compared to those predicting a contraction, only 2%.
With reference to the individual sectors, heterogeneous trends remain in the first three months of this year. Improving paper (+16% the cyclical variation, +8.5% the trend), chemistry (+3.9% the cyclical variation, +5.8% the trend), rubber and plastic (+6.9% the cyclical variation, +7.7% the trend), with contrasting signals in the steel industry (+2.3% the cyclical variation, -2.5% the trend), mechanics (+1.8% the cyclical variation, -0.4% trend), wood furniture (+8.4% cyclical variation, -2.6% trend), decreasing food (-4.5% cyclical variation, -3.8 % the trend) and construction materials (-6.2% the cyclical variation, -1.4% the trend).
The first part of the year is characterized by one international scenario still unstable and uncertain, with decelerating inflation (from +7.8% in April 2023 to +0.7% in April 2024 in the province of Udine). The increase in shipping costs due to the crisis in the Suez Canal and the increase in the prices of some raw materials, from copper to wheat, have a negative effect. Gas has also increased in price, now reaching 34 euros per Megawatt hour at the Tft, compared to 23 reached in February. Oil is limiting the risk of a recovery in inflation, remaining at 85 dollars a barrel compared to the 92 reached in April.
Certainly a first cut in ECB rates in June, with the first benefits for loans and investments.
The comment of deputy vice-president of Confindustria Udine, Piero Petrucco: «Despite a situation that remains difficult, the forecast data of moderate growth are confirmed, also at a territorial level. Fvg and Italy stand tall with advanced manufacturing, which generates value by inventing, innovating, exporting and offers qualified jobs with an intensity higher than any other economic sector. We are facing a new phase characterized by technological and environmental challenges, within which industry is leading the way.”
«On these issues – adds Petruzzo – we must continue to invest, also taking into account the scarcity of human resources in the context of demographic glaciationwhich reduces the number of people of working age, and of the gap between the professional profiles required and those available, which is dramatically widening.”
