To clarify the current economic picture of Italy there is the flash economic situation in May from the Confindustria Study Center.
The recovery of our country presents lights and shadows, testifying to a path of GDP revival and the various sectors of economic activity are still heterogeneous and not without uncertainties, also due to a European and global framework full of pitfalls.
If, in fact, i services are driving the recoveryThe industrial sector it still struggles like in all of Europe. In 4 graphs proposed by the Confindustria study it is possible to understand why full recovery in Italy has not yet occurred.
Everything you need to know about the recovery in Italy in 4 graphs
“The Italian economy is growing, but at different speeds: record tourism, good services and net exports, the industry badly”: with this summary, Confindustria’s May study photographs the national situation regarding recovery.
With a GDP that rose by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, Italy showed lights and shadows and the first inconsistency is revealed in this graph which compares the quarterly data:
Change in GDP and industrial production
Comparison between quarters in Italy
Industrial production fell by 1.3% in the first three months of 2024, while tourism, services and exports showed positive results. Specifically, the document highlights that: “foreign tourism in January-February grew by +20% in terms of current spending compared to 2023, which was already a record year”. Services closed the quarter with +2.3%.
Employment, in the study center data, has highlighted an expansion and the second graph makes this clear:
Employed and unemployed
comparison from 2021 to the first quarter of 2024
There is an alarm bell, however: “the increase in authorized CIG hours (+8.6% on 1st 2023) signals some slowdown in the use of labor input”analysts write.
Slight signs of optimism came from the credit and business rates front. While waiting for the first cut in the cost of money by the ECB in June, the pressure is starting to ease as can be seen in the third graph:
Interest rates and loans
Data for businesses
But pay attention to the warning: “credit continues to not help consumption and investments, although rates have fallen slightly and the decline in loans has stopped for businesses”.
Finally, it is interesting to report this last graph:
Oil and pump prices
Trend over the years in Italy
Despite the price of crude oil did not register the surge that was expected with the tensions in the Middle East, its level remains quite high and the cost of fuel is still affected. It should also be noted that the reference gas price for Europe remains more than doubled since 2019 and on an upward path, albeit slightly.
