OfGino Pagliuca
The growth data compared to 2020 are sensational in the route between via Ripamonti and the Barona district
Prices and rentals have reached their highest values for a decade in Milan but perhaps the space for further growth is running out: the supply of homes both for sale and for rent is increasing significantly. At the end of the first quarter of 2024 in the city, according to the data that the idealista.it portal extracted for the Corriere, 22,048 homes were on offer, with an increase on an annual basis of 15.5% and compared to March 2020, when the pandemic broke out, by 48.9%.
As regards rentals, the current offer of long-term contracts is 10,786 real estate units, with an increase of 60.3% compared to a year ago and 3.5% on March 2020. Idealista.it provided us also the numbers relating to the various districts into which the city is divided. The area with the highest offer of houses for sale is Greco-Turro, with 2,864 offers; followed by Fiera-De Angeli with 2,726 and Garibaldi Porta Venezia with 2,652. The lowest numbers are recorded in San Siro-Trenno-Figino, with 458 houses for sale; figures also reduced in two other districts in the west of the city: in Vialba-Gallaratese the announcements concern 566 homes, in Baggio 587. As regards percentage variations, the greatest is recorded in the south, with Ripamonti-Vigentino at +47.3%, and Corvetto-Rogoredo at +30.1%. Famagosta-Barona also performed well with +25.6%. The smallest increase in Lorenteggio with +8.5%, in Baggio with +4.8% and Certosa +1.5%. The growth data compared to 2020 are sensational in the route between via Ripamonti and Barona: Cermenate + 119.6%, Vigentino +108.4%, Famagosta + 84.1%. Finally, the permanence data of the advertisement, which can be considered equivalent to the period necessary between the start of the sale and the stipulation of the compromise. In the city average we are at 97 days, the same value as a year ago, in March 2020 we needed 106 days. The areas where it sells fastest are Comasina and Porta Vittoria, the longest times are recorded in Trenno.
As regards rentals, the district with the greatest offer is Garibaldi-Porta Venezia, with 1,812 properties, followed by Fiera-De Angeli with 1,728 and Navigli-Bocconi with 1,377. The smallest data are recorded in Baggio, where the offer consists of only 64 homes, in Vialba-Gallaratese (78) and in Trenno San Siro (126). The ranking of changes can be deceiving because the highest data are highlighted in areas where the offer last year was very limited: Corvetto for example recorded +143.2% but in 2023 there were only 13 houses on offer; However, Garibaldi Porta Venezia recorded +41% while compared to 2020 the increase was only 0.3. Again compared to pre-pandemic, several areas have not yet recovered ground. For example, Baggio is at -40.2% and Forlanini at -32.4. The time needed to rent is slightly increasing (one day on an annual basis) but still very short: 20 days on average, with maximum peaks of 27 in Trenno.
Finally, idealista.it also provided data relating to adverts transitional rental; We won’t go into detail because for this type of contract the use of Web promotion is not as massive as for long-term sales and rentals. However, even in this case there has been a marked increase in supplywhich at the end of last March consisted of 3,406 properties, with an increase of almost two thousand units in just one year.
What does this sequence of numbers suggest? A first consideration is that if the offer for sale is 22 thousand units compared to a city market that in 2023 it recorded 25 thousand deeds and that this year perhaps will have a slight increase (for the official data of the first quarter we still have to wait a month) a good part of those houses will remain unsold or in any case will be withdrawn from the market. At the beginning of 2022, research had highlighted that there were around 8,000 apartments advertised for over a year on the city market. There are all the conditions to exceed that figure.
Of course, not all those who sell are pressured by need (the factor that almost always ends up forcing them to sell at a reduced price), but probably a portion of owners believe that they will be able to obtain a better profit today than in the coming months. As for rentals, it can be thought that part of the new offer derives from properties that were intended for short-term rentals; However, the fact remains that the increase in the supply of long-term rentals pays off It is unlikely that rents which have already reached unsustainable levels for families with normal salaries will rise further, especially if the ECB’s decisions lead to a fall in the cost of mortgages. At that point and at current values, only three types of tenants will be interested in a rental with an ordinary contract in the city: those who intend to use the home for a limited number of years; those who prefer renting because it leaves more freedom of choice and finally those who cannot obtain a mortgage. But the “unbankable” subjects are certainly not the tenants most desired by homeowners.
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May 2, 2024 (changed May 2, 2024 | 09:35)
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