Today we read about the concern of a reemergence of Covid-19, with infections increasing by 20% in Italy. However, we must now go into detail and distinguish the type of concern. Covid-19 is now an endemic disease, so we must get used to having it with us for the next few years; many years, who knows 100 years. Every now and then we will see a small increase in infections, which we must know is normal, because it falls within the characteristics of an endemic disease. Let us remember that it is not a seasonal virus. It is always there, every month of the year.
Covid, the summer wave has begun: +20% cases per week. The alert: “Worrisome autumn”
by Donatella Zorzetto
June 28, 2024
Special attention for the elderly and frail
We must therefore worry about the very elderly and/or frail people, just as we worry about protecting them from seasonal flu. It is not justified to raise a general alarm, but it is good to monitor the progress of the virus and keep an eye on the situation in the country and in the world. Of course, if we want to protect ourselves from this endemic disease we can use the mask in closed and crowded places.
We read that Covid variants called kp2 and 3 are circulating, but what are they? They are the expression of the increasingly marked adaptation of the virus to man, its (for now) last host. Which is normal, we are sure that we will see many more of them.
The evolution of the virus
None of these variants will ever be more contagious (rt about 18 like measles) than a virus that is currently the most contagious on Earth; it will be more virulent, because let us remember that evolution always takes steps forward, never backwards. At the end of the game, therefore, the principle of “I would like to but I can’t” applies: since the virus would like to do more but cannot, evolution in the predator and prey game (we are the prey) does not make it possible.
So let’s not panic if we see Covid in circulation, let’s think, instead, about the scientific data that can tell us what normally happens in the presence of an endemic.
Covid, who are the “Supermans” of the virus: the secret of those who don’t get sick has been discovered
by Donatella Zorzetto
June 21, 2024
Jubilee to monitor
There is, however, an event that we must monitor with particular attention: the upcoming Jubilee. Which will bring many people from all over the world to our country. It could be the occasion for the arrival of pathogens, even new ones. But also well known ones from which we know how to protect ourselves. Let us keep an eye on the situation, with caution and without terrorism.
Massimo Ciccozzi is a full professor of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics at the Campus Bio-Medico University of Rome
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