Having received the green light from the leaders of the 27, the next challenge for Ursula von der Leyen will be the vote in the European Parliament, which should be held in Strasbourg on 18 July.
The threshold needed to pass the exam is 361, a number that does not decrease based on the number of voters, effectively making abstention a vote against.
In the popular-socialist-liberal coalition, von der Leyen has to deal with a physiological rate of snipers estimated at 10-15% of the votes which puts confidence in the next president of the Commission at risk.
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On the other hand, support for von der Leyen’s second term could come from the pool of Non-Inscrits (42 members) and from MEPs from new parties (the so-called Others, currently equal to 42 seats). A good part of these two groups, however, should be placed in opposition.
Here are some possible scenarios.
* MAJORITY URSULA It is the majority made up of Socialists, Liberals and Populars and currently has 399 MEPs. This margin, sufficiently large on paper, could however be significantly reduced if some national delegations of the three groups decide not to give their support to the new commission.
* URSULA + GREEN MAJORITY Several socialist leaders, including Frans Timmermans and Elly Schlein, have called for the EU Greens to join the coalition.
This could, theoretically, bring the Ursula majority from 399 to 453 votes. However, the numbers of this coalition risk being much lower, since in the event of an extension to the Greens, the EPP could lose dozens of MEPs opposed to the policies of the Greens, including that of Forza Italia which has already expressed its opposition.
* MAJORITY URSULA + ECR Even though on paper it would have 482 MEPs, the Ursula majority with Ecr is an experiment that cannot take off at the moment. The hypothesis aired by Deputy Prime Minister Tajani and supported by Forza Italia meets the intransigent opposition of Socialists and Liberals, against any agreement with the right, thus leaving EPP and Ecr stuck at 271 MEPs.
* URSULA MAJORITY + FDI Some national delegations, such as Fratelli d’Italia (or even the three Czech members) which has 24 MEPs, could independently decide to guarantee their support for the new commission in exchange for political assurances. This could boost von der Leyen’s support numbers, giving her a wider margin of safety.
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