Orsini (Confindustria) and Patuelli (Abi) rightly wrap up Corriere della Sera

To lose patience, in rapid sequence, both the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini and the president of ABI, Antonio Patuelli, this time at Corriere della Sera they made it really big.

In fact, on the Sun 24 Hours yesterday, Orsini declared that “I learn from some newspapers that state guarantees could be a further problem for public spending in our country. It is a provision that made it possible to disburse 250 billion, we understand that 100 billion remain to be repaid, which companies are regularly paying and the risk of default is residual”.

It is on Sun today, Patuelli took things further, adding that “Confindustria president Emanuele Orsini is right about the importance of guarantees to support businesses”. And, in case the message was not clear enough, a passage from Orsini’s note was reported (“…when I read certain news I say: be careful because it’s not like that…”).

The reference is clear and points to what is published on Corriere della Sera on Saturday.

Where we read that the state’s accounts are subject to “a 300 billion bill” which could have the appearance of a “ghost” linked to the 300 billion guarantee granted to small and medium-sized businesses on loans provided by banks during the pandemic. And, for those who aren’t scared enough, we talk about “a monstrous figure inherited from the Covid years” which could generate “a horror film that the Ministry of Economy hopes will never be broadcast”.

The author Francesco Verderami claims that at the banks there would be “a red light is on“because they are uncertain about the repayment times of these loans and, consequently, doubtful about the State’s ability to “cope with requests” to honor the warranty. What’s worse is that “It is not known at the moment how much the effect of the decree on the public coffers could be and whether the reserves set aside by Mediocredito Centrale and Sace are sufficient to cover any missed payments”.

In this case, the banks “they register the credit, turning it over to the State” (we spread a compassionate veil over the form…), because ultimately it would be up to the Economy to pay” and, in that case, “Giorgetti doesn’t know which way to turn”.

Let’s reassure the readers immediately: it’s all false, by tabulas. And Orsini rightly lost his temper.

In fact, if Verderami had had the patience to research and read the Financial Stability Report published by Bank of Italy on 30 April, he would have found it written (at the bottom of page 22, so he avoids the hassle of looking for it) that “…at the end of 2023, approximately 45 percent of the loans backed by a public guarantee issued during the pandemic had matured (between March 2020 and June 2022)”. As a result, the amount of guarantees and the risk borne by the State has almost halved. Since these are loans with a duration of no more than 6 years, we are now exactly halfway.

It is always Bankitalia that lets us know that this risk remains contained because “according to information provided by Mediocredito Centrale, manager of the Guarantee Fund for small and medium-sized enterprises, in March 2024 the enforcement of guaranteed loans grew compared to December, but remain lower than the trends observed before the pandemic.”

Furthermore, the deterioration rate of those loans backed by public guarantees remained constantly within the average, albeit slightly higher than that of loans without guarantees and, in any case, at the lowest level in the last 15 years. In short, Italian companies are repaying their loans even in advance, and the banks have no need to enforce the public guarantee. Indeed, those loans were a real panacea for their accounts, which benefited from revenues without any risk because, in the worst case scenario, the Mef would have reimbursed them.

Bank of Italy also reiterated in the report dated 29 April 2022 that “at the end of last year the companies benefiting from the credit support measures (guaranteed loans and moratoriums not yet expired) were mainly at low risk” and in the report of November 25, 2022 added that “the expiry of the moratoriums introduced following the pandemic and the gradual exit from the grace period for loans backed by public guarantees did not translate into a significant increase in loans with repayment difficulties”.

But if Verderami had not wanted to delve into this painstaking analysis of the sources, it would have been enough for him to read the article signed by Laura Serafini in the Sole 24 Ore of 13 June where, although with a delay of almost two months compared to the publication of the Bank of Italy report , he could have just read the title (“Covid loan guarantees halved, the amount dropped to 100 billion”). But evidently, there is none so deaf as he who will not hear.

The denigrating heat didn’t even show mercy to the numbers because, as Bankitalia always reminds us, “From the beginning of the pandemic to the end of the first half of this year (2022 ed.), the loans disbursed to businesses with the support of public guarantees amounted to around 268 billion, over 90 percent of which can be traced back to the programs introduced with the crisis and conducted by the Central Guarantee Fund (FCG).” Since the guarantee was 90% and 100%, for loans above or below €30,000 respectively, the amount of the public guarantee has never been higher than 210/220 billion, to which are added the 28 billion disbursed by Sace, both of which have now been reduced by approximately half. So much less than the 300 billion advertised by the Corriere.

The alarm raised on Saturday is also unfounded for another reason. In fact, the state budget has already foreseen, year after year, provisions for possible losses. They are so prudent with respect to what the State is actually reimbursing to the banks that, if there were to be an effect on the public finances, it should be positive. One less headache for Giancarlo Giorgetti.

This is only the latest episode of a clumsy operation of self-sabotage of the State’s accounts, coinciding precisely with the decisive turning point of the start of negotiations with the EU on the path of fiscal consolidation, also in compliance with failed rules that simply need to be abolished. A few days ago it was Federico Fubini who spoke about “Italian titles that tremble more than the French ones”. Only to be sensationally denied first by the data and then by a manager of a large investment fund quoted by Bloomberg to underline that the fundamentals (growth, foreign and private debt) for Italy are significantly better than those of France.

They would like to scare the markets, hoping that the latter will be able to discipline the government. But investors read the data, recognize the hoaxes and continue to buy Italy.