Takeover bids are back in Piazza Affari. Since the beginning of the year, 14 takeover offers have been announced on listed companies. Also considering the 3 operations started in 2023 and concluded in the current year, there are 17 companies that will leave the list and others could be added by the end of the year. For the first time in years, therefore, the balance, in absolute value, between new entries and exits from the list, could be negative. Yes, because since the beginning of the year, eight stocks have entered the list, although another dozen companies are on track for listing by the end of the summer. The latest operation announced in chronological order was that of Alkemy, a company active in the digital communication and marketing industry, and listed on the Star segment. At the beginning of June, a voluntary public takeover offer was announced aimed at acquiring the entire Vitali company for a total value of 68.2 million with the aim of delisting to accelerate the growth plan. Good news for shareholders who will see a price of 12 euros, compared to 9.68 euros pre-announcement. From the lows of October 2023, the stock has actually doubled. A few days ago, the government confirmed the green light for the acquisition of Saras by the Dutch company Vitol. The mandatory public purchase offer, announced at the beginning of last February, had been set at 1.75 euros, a level revised downwards to 1.6 euros to take into account the dividend payment. Everything will be concluded by the end of the summer.
Releases on the horizon
But there are already other candidates to leave the scene on the horizon. Among those “rumored” at the top of the list is Nexi, which last October ended up in the crosshairs of a consortium of private equity funds. Below are some banking stocks which have been rumored for aggregation and consolidation for some time. Not to forget Juventus, which after Andrea Agnelli’s departure could be “privatised” by the family upon completion of the financial recovery and sustainability plan for sports management. The Economy of the Courier wanted to take stock of the situation by reviewing the stocks that operators see as most sensitive to the possibility of extraordinary operations. If for the market as a whole a takeover bid aimed at delisting represents a deadweight loss, with the loss of capitalization of the securities involved, things are different for shareholders. Taking into consideration the period 2020-2023, the average premium recognized in the purchase offer price compared to that before the announcement of the operation was higher than 10%, and approximately 30% in the case of Euronext Growth Milan securities . In the recent case of Alkemy the offer price was over 20% higher than the pre-announcement price. For Saras, however, the takeover price was lower than the prices recorded at the time of communication to the market, but over a 12-month horizon the bonus rises to 30%.
Ferment around payments and banks
As mentioned, Nexi could be among the next candidates for an extraordinary operation. The pan-European digital financial services company with a capitalization of almost 8 billion has been in the past in the sights of private equity funds without, however, an offer materializing. The sector is very effervescent: in 2023 the GTCR fund came forward for a majority stake in Worldcopay at a valuation of 18.5 billion dollars, while Brookfield launched a takeover bid on Network International for 3 billion dollars. Mediobanca Research recently confirmed its opinion on the stock outperform commenting on the news flow or the failed sale of Ratepay, the German branch of the Bnpl business. According to experts, however, it was not a negative surprise as the high interest rate environment depressed the multiples and margins of the business. The sale would have accelerated the decline in Nexi’s debt but still remains an open option for the future. At the same time, however, the company confirmed its commitment to offering products. There are also several banking stocks on the list of upcoming takeover bids. Thanks to record budgets driven by the positive impact of the increase in the cost of money, the main groups are ready to go shopping in Italy and abroad. Among the most coveted preys is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which has returned to generating profits, paying dividends but above all seeing the majority shareholder, i.e. the government, in the position of having to privatize the bank both for budget reasons and for commitments made with the ‘Europe.
