MILAN – Positive start for Western markets, which await the Fed meeting and the US employment data this week to evaluate “how much further” the expectation of a rate cut will go. As noted by Financial Timesalthough the ECB is now seen in an advanced position compared to American Central Bank to reduce the cost of money, the persistence of US inflation is reducing bets on rate cuts almost everywhere. Precisely for the ECB, traders’ expectation is now 0.7 percentage points of rate reduction compared to 1.63 points at the beginning of the year; for the BoE it went from 1.72 to 0.44 points.
The same newspaper launches an investigation according to which the major Western banks still operating in Russia have paid 800 million euros in taxes to Putin’s coffers, last year, compared to combined profits of around 3 billion: a leap compared to 200 million in 2021, the year before the invasion of Ukraine. They are part of the analysis Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo and OTP. For the City newspaper, the profits are also the result of the funds that the banks cannot withdraw from Moscow. They benefited from the rise in rates, but also paradoxically from Western sanctions against Russian banks which cut their domestic rivals off from international circuits. The Austrian Raiffeisen alone accounts for half of the payments to the treasury, UniCredit is credited with 154 million (a “no comment” came from Gae Aulenti) while Intesa Sanpaolo (27 million) is the closest to the exit, but not still sold its assets in Russia.
Roller coaster day for the yen, despite the closure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange or perhaps due to the dwindling liquidity. After having depreciated to the point of breaking through the threshold of 160 per dollar, another record for 34 years now, it began to strengthen again in a very volatile session with a succession of rumors of intervention by the authorities.
- 11:28
Final green light for the EU Stability Pact
12.06pm
EU stock markets slow down and become mixed
European stock markets slow down and become mixed awaiting the Fed’s decisions on Wednesday. Frankfurt edged out 0.09%, with investors eyeing a preliminary estimate of April inflation due in the early afternoon. London advanced by 0.48% and Paris by 0.08%, while Madrid lost 0.97%. Milan also slows down at +0.12%.
11:30
Istat, positive extra-EU balance of 5.6 billion in March
In March the trade balance with non-EU27 countries was positive and equal to +5,603 million (+4,161 million in the same month of 2023). Istat finds it. The energy deficit (-4,012 million) is lower than a year earlier (-6,282 million). The surplus in the trade of non-energy products, although large, reduced from 10,444 million in March 2023 to 9,615 million in March 2024.
11:28
Asian stock markets close higher
Asian stock markets close higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday. The Hang Seng index gained 0.54% to 17,746.91 points. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an increase of 0.79% to 3,113.04 points, while the Shenzhen Composite Index of China’s second largest stock exchange rose by 2.31% to 1,768.44 points. The Kospi index recorded a +1.1% to 2,687.43 points. Today Tokyo was closed for holidays.
11:28
Final green light for the EU Stability Pact
Green light from EU member states to the new Stability and Growth Pact. The text was approved by the meeting of European Agriculture Ministers in Luxembourg, among the A points, without discussion. The package was approved, including the text where unanimity was required. Belgium abstained from the regulation on effective coordination of economic policies and multilateral budgetary surveillance, on which, however, unanimity was not required. With today’s approval, the new Stability Pact can come into force. None of the 27 member countries, therefore, voted against the new economic governance. And all 27, including Italy, voted in favor of the only text of the package on which unanimity was required. There was no discussion on the Stability Pact between the Representatives of the 27 in the Agriculture Council. The Belgian presidency limited itself to noting the favorable vote on the texts. For Italy, the meeting – underway in Luxembourg – is not attended by the Minister of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forestry, Francesco Lollobrigida, but by the undersecretary of the same ministry Luigi D’Eramo.
11.27am
Managed savings, 387 million collected in March
Preliminary data from Assogestioni’s managed savings industry show a positive collection balance of 387 million and managed assets of 2,343 billion, with a positive figure of 1.4% of the overall performance effect and 1.3 % of the performance effect on open-end funds only. In particular, according to the association’s research office, the open funds raised 1.92 billion in the month, given that, added to the 155 million that flowed into the closed funds, this brings collective management to 2.08 billion in new capital.
11.26am
Economic confidence is declining in Europe
In April, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) decreased marginally in both the EU (-0.3 points to 96.2) and the euro area (-0.6 points to 95.6). The employment expectations indicator (IEEE) fell slightly more markedly in both areas (EU: -0.5 points to 101.7, euro area: -0.7 points to 101.8). In contrast to the ESI, the IEE continued to score above its long-term average.
10:03
Chinese markets close higher
Chinese stock markets closed the first session of the week higher, with the Shanghai index rising by 0.79% to 3,113.04 points. In Shenzhen the main index closed up 2.22% at 9,673.76 points.
10:02
Philips pays 1.1 billion in respirator litigation
Philips has agreed to pay $1.1 billion to settle litigation in the United States, where it is facing lawsuits after being forced to recall faulty breathing devices for people with sleep problems. The Dutch group announced in a statement that it had reached an agreement “to resolve the personal injury litigation and medical monitoring class action in order to end the uncertainty associated with the litigation in the United States.”
09:44
Spanish inflation at 3.3%
Spanish inflation in April rose to 3.3% on an annual basis from 3.2% in March. The value is lower than estimates which pointed to +3.4%. Consumer prices on a monthly basis instead fell to +0.7% from +0.8% in March.
09:43
Ariston drops 2% after the Russian expropriation
Ariston lost 2% in early trading on Piazza Affari after the Russian government’s decision to proceed with the temporary transfer of the Russian subsidiary of the Italian company Ariston Thermo Group to the Russian Gazprom Household Systems Jsc, a household appliance manufacturing company controlled by Gazprom.
09:41
EU stock markets are off to a good start
A rising start for European stock markets in a week marked by the continuation of the quarterly reporting season and the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Milan gains 0.35%. At the same level are Madrid (+0.24%), which is experiencing uncertainties regarding the stability of the Spanish government (announcement by Prime Minister Sanchez at 12pm), and Paris (+0.29%). Further behind, but still positive, Frankfurt (+0.19%), awaiting the inflation data in Germany, while Amsterdam is +0.56%, the price list most sensitive to movements in the tech sector. After an excellent week on the US company accounts front, investors are looking with optimism at the results of Amazon (tomorrow) and Apple (Thursday). However, the spotlight is mainly on the Fed: even if no surprises are expected on rates, President Jerome Powell’s conference could leave open a window of opportunity for a possible cut in the third quarter (July or September).
Looking at stocks, A2a (+2.63%), following the European utilities sector, and Nexi (+1.39) stand out in the business market. The banking sector is also tonic, with Mps (+1.55%) and Pop Sondrio (+1.31%), while the countdown has begun for the start of the quarterly reporting season.
08:26
Vivendi, revenues at 4.2 billion
In the first quarter of 2024 Vivendi recorded revenues of 4,275 million euros, compared to 2,290 million in the same period in 2023. or an increase of 86.6 percent. The result, explains a note, is mainly due to the consolidation of Lagardère and the growth in revenues of Canal+ and Havas. At constant currency and scope, Vivendi’s revenues grew by 5.4%, mainly thanks to the performance of Lagardère (+8.9% to 1.88 billion), Canal+ Group (+2.6% to 1.54 billion ) and Havas (+3.4% to 617 million).
08:25
Oil falling
Oil prices falling this morning on the raw materials markets: Brent crude for delivery in June is trading at 83.22 dollars with a drop of 0.75% while Brent crude also for delivery in June changes hands at 88.74 dollars with a decrease of 0.85%.
07:56
Asian stocks on the rise
Asian stocks are rising, led by real estate stocks, as some major cities eased home-buying restrictions over the weekend and increased market expectations for further easing measures. The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo advanced by 0.84%. Chinese markets also performed well. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 1.12%. The Shanghai Composite Index rises by 0.80%. Seoul’s Kospi also rose, recording an increase of 1.08%.
07:55
The yen hits a 34-year low, then rebounds
The yen surged against the dollar after hitting 34-year lows against the greenback. The Japanese currency strengthened at one point to 155.05 against the dollar – after falling to 160.17 in the morning, which sparked speculation that authorities would step in to support it for the first time since 2022.
