Nothing but declining debt. The effects of the 110% Superbonus risk catapulting Italian public debt above 142% of GDP. This is due to the draft being “significantly stronger than expected” writes the Fitch rating agency. It is the nightmare of the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, for whom just mentioning the building subsidy, the costs of which have gone out of control, so much so that the accounts are constantly changing, causes stomach aches. “It is a monster that has affected public finances,” repeated the head of the Treasury. The specter, awaiting the next judgment of Fitch and its sister company Moody’s on Italian debt, is that the effects could be even worse than expected, as the rating guardians think. Already now, as emerged in the latest Economic and Financial Document, compared to past forecasts, the debt to GDP ratio will rise instead of falling, at least until 2026. In two years it will be higher than what was indicated last autumn. The bar will be at 139.8%, two decimals higher than what was written in the update note of the economics and finance document approved last September. Only the following year will 139.6% be reached.
To help public finances comes the proposal for a debt bailout from the ranks of the majority, in the form of an amendment to the Superbonus decree to allow the tax credits generated by building incentives to be used in ten years instead of four. The idea was put forward by Forza Italia in one of the 355 changes suggested by the senators to the decree designed by the government to once and for all curb the increase in costs, sanctioning the end of the possibility of discounts on invoices and the transfer of credit. Almost a last resort to stem the effects of the 110% on public finances. So much so that the Bank of Italy itself, in a memorandum filed with the Finance Committee of the Senate, where the measure is being examined, suggests that “even if the new restrictions were to slow down the accumulation of credits, the only way that would remain going forward would be the elimination of the Superbonus before its natural expiry at the end of next year”.
A clear cut therefore, but within the majority the most welcome solution is that of a gradual exit, which cushions the impact on the debt, maintaining the possibility of using the bonus by spreading the deductions over several years, therefore beyond the 2025, the date on which the entire system must cease under current laws.
It is not only Forza Italia that indicates this path. “If this rule is not made, the debt this year will rise from 137.3 to 137.8 of the GDP, while with the credit spread it will stop at 137.2, thus confirming even the mini-descent hypothesized by the Government at the end September,” explained the Northern League deputy Silvana Comaroli.
On the credit spread, the opening of the Treasury cannot be ruled out. Less obvious is support for the various exemptions proposed by the Azzurri and which risk distorting the decree, undermining its effectiveness. Between approval in the Council of Ministers and arrival in the Official Journal, the text had already changed form. Initially, the decree extended the stop on sales and invoice discounts to the earthquake-stricken areas as well. When the news emerged, chaos erupted. Having had their say, in sequence, the commissioner for the reconstruction of the 2016 earthquake Guido Castelli, senator of the Brothers of Italy and close to Giorgia Meloni, the deputy Alberto Bagnai, economic manager of the League, party of minister Giorgetti, the mayor of Amatrice, Giorgio Cortellesi.; the newly reconfirmed president of Abruzzo, Marco Marsilio, also from Fdi. The protests of centre-right governors and local administrators have produced some adjustments. The possibility remains, but within a spending limit of 400 million.
New requests for exemption are now arriving from senators. For public housing, for example for non-profit organizations and housing cooperatives. Other requests for flexibility concern condominiums that have already appointed technicians and professionals, “with related spending commitment”, in charge of taking care of the paperwork for the work to be carried out or who have already incurred preliminary expenses.
“You can present all the proposals in the world, you just have to cover them. So with this premise I presume that there will be few changes”, puts forward the president of Senate Finance, the Northern League member Massimo Garavaglia, “At most there could be some opening on an idea which he himself promoted: involving Municipalities in anti-fraud controls. The fake credits intercepted by the Financial Police or stopped by the Revenue Agency already amount to around 15 billion. To increase control, the idea is to pass on 30% of the sums recovered to local authorities.
“I will not put anything to the vote that has no coverage,” is Garavaglia’s message to the senators. Not a good viaticum for possible interventions. The past has shown that even small corrections risk making Superbonus mayonnaise go further crazy.
By the Treasury’s own admission, the exemptions granted in the last year, allowing initially excluded subjects to be able to count on full relief, have increased spending to 160.5 billion which becomes 219 billion if in addition to 110% is taken his brothers also taken into consideration. Via XX Settembre could therefore get in the way. In Parliament, some elected representatives had already shown that they had lost patience in February. At issue was another decree on construction credits, granted to the majority after unsuccessful attempts to include some extensions of the incentive in the latest budget measure. Once the budget law was approved, Giorgetti had succumbed to pressure. The text had left the Chambers just as it had entered. A member of the majority, puffing on a sofa, complained. “Absurd, we have never seen a decree issued without even one modification”.
