Now it’s her turn. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the outgoing Commission and in pectore at the same time, after the yes of the European Council.
There is only one step, the least easy, which separates it from an encore on which not many in Brussels would have bet until recently: the vote of the plenary of the European Chamber.
From now until mid-July, von der Leyen will manage the less noble phase of negotiations for her re-election. A negotiation that the former German minister intends to initiate with both the groups and the individual parliamentary delegations. It will not be easy, also because Italy’s break from the EU summit is destined to strengthen the anti-right trench of the Socialists and Liberals. The objective, for Ursula, remains the same: to secure her confirmation and defuse the snipers without distorting the mandate she is about to begin.
In recent days, von der Leyen has already spoken to the S&D and Renew groups. Both explained to her that the red line is the alliance with ECR: in that case, their favorable vote will be lost. The two groups are moving from different positions: the socialist Antonio Costa, no matter how things go, will be president of the European Council. The fate of the liberal Kaja Kalla is currently tied to that of von der Leyen. Neither the Socialists nor the Liberals have any intention of setting a trap for von der Leyen. Indeed, in recent days Olaf Scholz himself, with Manfred Weber, is said to have moved to explain to them not to push the EPP to raise the stakes too much because in doing so they would have put their Spitzenkandidat at risk. The trend has not changed. A clear opening to ECR would find the German Chancellor equally clearly opposed. A part of the Socialists, then, will push further to broaden the dialogue to the Greens. This is a path that does not excite Weber, and on which Antonio Tajani has repeatedly reiterated his opposition. However, the two noes and the abstention put on the table by Meloni for the top jobs have inevitably restricted the room for maneuver of FI, that is, the only force in the Italian government that is in the EPP.
Groups, delegations, but also individual MEPs. Von der Leyen, faithful to Teutonic tradition, will go straight down his path. He will ask for the vote for his encore, trying to balance the program that he is preparing to compile. At the same time, negotiations for delegations in the future Commission will get underway. Von der Leyen does not want a second consecutive mandate: those who were already commissioners will have a portfolio, the same titles and spaces of delegation will be changed. The race for executive vice presidents is for a few but it is close: Italy, France, Spain and Poland are in the running. It is difficult, however, for one of the economic portfolios not to go to a hawk from the North.
Meloni’s criticism has apparently already been absorbed by the community elite. “The European Council is not a circle of technicians, but of politicians, all with their own political families and their own orientations. So I understand the vote of the Italian Prime Minister, with whom I still plan to collaborate closely, as well as with the other 26”, Costa underlined.
In Brussels, the future president of the European Council, von der Leyen and Kallas had their first meeting. Handshakes and smiles, for this “touchdown”, wrote von der Leyen on X, where he assured “we will be a great team”. The new trio will certainly be more close-knit than the current one. Von der Leyen, explain European sources, has always worked very well with Costa, starting from the pandemic period. With Kallas, the synergy on Ukraine, in the last two years, has significantly strengthened relations which have never been fluctuating. Once Strasbourg’s yes has been received, von der Leyen will head down to define the program and the Commission. Before her, however, she is called to the last masterpiece: to make the votes of the Greens and Melonians converge on her without signing any alliance.
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