AGI – The election of the next Iranian president will take place a year early, on Friday 28 June, after the death of the ultra-conservative president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. The vote takes place against the backdrop of growing domestic discontent, voter apathy and strong regional turmoil with the war between Israel and Hamas.
The Guardian Council, the ultra-conservative-dominated body that selects those eligible for the electoral race, gave the green light to only 6 candidates out of the 80 registered; most are conservatives with strong anti-Western positions, while the reformist camp is represented by only one candidate, MP Masoud Pezeshkian. Half of the presidential hopefuls are sanctioned by Western governments. The women who had registered were all disqualifiedas well as prominent moderates and reformists, including former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and former First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri.
It is believed that the favorite at the polls is Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, 62, a former mayor of Tehran with close ties to the Revolutionary Guard Corps and capable of intercepting the centrist vote as well. The other candidate from the conservative camp on whom the spotlight is focused is the former chief nuclear negotiator, the ultra-conservative Said Jalili. It is possible that if the reformists manage to convince their electorate to go and vote, reversing the trend of abstentionism in recent years, Pezeshkian could lead Qalibaf to the run-off, scheduled for July 5.
The June 28 meeting gives the Iranian leadership a chance to demonstrate that it has been able to handle a disaster such as the sudden death of a president without destabilizing the country, even as it grapples with strong anti-government sentiment and tensions abroad with the United States and Israel. The elections are taking place against the backdrop of a now perennial economic crisis, widespread popular discontent and a ferocious repression of dissent with at least nine young people executed for taking part in the protests of the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom in 2022’ movement.
For years now, voters have been demonstrating their disillusionment with a system deemed increasingly less inclusive, rigged and incapable of improving their lives, by deserting the polls. In the last presidential elections in 2021, turnout recorded a negative record of 48.8%, the lowest figure since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In a highly controlled system like the Iranian one, turnout is an important factor in legitimizing power . The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has urged strong participation in the vote, while figures such as the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner, the jailed activist Narges Mohammadi, have launched calls for a boycott talking about “illegal elections”.
The candidates held several television debates, in which they all committed to addressing the economic challenges affecting the country’s 85 million inhabitants, also expressing unprecedented criticism of the government, which many observers, however, read only as an attempt to make the consultation appear free and bring as many voters as possible to the polls. Pezeshkian was the only candidate to address the issue of the infamous morality police, which controls among other things the compulsory veil for women, but limited himself only to declaring himself “against”.
While candidates were free to criticize the system, i media were kept under close surveillance. Two prominent journalists, Yashar Soltani and Saba Azarpeik, were arrested this month for their work on corruption cases involving government officials, particularly conservative candidate Qalibaf. Azarpeik, two months pregnant, had a miscarriage a few days ago, after a 9-hour hearing in her trial for “falsehood, defamation and threats”.
Who are the 6 candidates
Six candidates, five conservatives and one reformist, are competing for the seat of president of Iran in the early elections of June 28, convened after the death of ultra-conservative former president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May. Only they have passed the scrutiny of the Guardian Council, the body that supervises elections in the Islamic Republic.
The ultra-conservative camp is represented by half of the six candidates: Said Jalili; Alireza Zakani and Amir-Hossein Qazizadeh Hashemi.
SAID JALILI, 58 years old, he is considered one of the most extremist politicians in the country: former secretary of the Supreme Security Council, he led the delegation that led the nuclear negotiations and then strongly opposed the resumption of talks to restore the 2015 agreement, from which the USA unilaterally exited under the presidency of Donald Trump. Born in Mashhad like Khamenei, he obtained a PhD from Imam Sadegh University, the regime’s ideological training ground. He is nicknamed the “living martyr” for having lost a leg during the Iran-Iraq war as a member of the Basij, the Iranian paramilitary force acting under the control of the Pasdaran. A member of the Discernment Council, the Supreme Leader’s main advisory body, Jalili failed to run for president in 2013 and 2021, but this time he could count on the support of some of Raisi’s closest collaborators. He is one of the two favorites in the presidential race.
ALIREZA ZAKANI, born in 1966, tried to run in the 2013 elections, but without success and was then admitted to the last presidential elections in 2021, which saw Raisi’s victory. A leading critic of negotiations with Western powers over Iran’s nuclear program when he was an MP, he is also known as the “revolutionary tank” for his aggressive rhetoric and attacks on reformists. A combative style that he maintained even in the not very popular position of mayor of the capital. His term as mayor, which began in 2021, provided him with considerable financial resources and a degree of independence from government. Zakani led the recent campaign of repression to forcibly impose the hijab on women. he is subject to sanctions by the UK for committing serious violations of human rights.
AMIR HOSSEIN GHAZIZADEH HASHEMI, A 53-year-old doctor by training, he is a former Member of Parliament and former First Vice President. An exponent of the extremist right, he ran unsuccessfully for president in 2021. Raisi later appointed him vice president and head of the Foundation for Martyrs’ and Veterans’ Affairs. It is a parastatal foundation, subject to sanctions for directing financial resources to organizations such as Hezbollah.
The wing of conservatives considered pragmatic or moderate, as the Amwaj website points out, includes Ghalibaf and Mostafa Pourmohammadi.
MOHAMMAD-BAGHER QALIBAFborn in 1961, in his fourth candidacy for president, is the great favorite in these elections. He was not only mayor of Tehran, but also former commander of the Pasdaran during the Iran-Iraq war and head of police. In the latter role, Qalibaf – according to audio that circulated years ago – boasted of beating protesters with wooden sticks in 1999 and of ordering officers to shoot demonstrators during the 2003 protests at universities. He is supported by the Pasdaran, has relations with the inner circle of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and also enjoys support among the centrists. He has been involved in several corruption scandals.
MOSTAFA POURMOHAMMADI, 64 years old, born in the holy Shiite city of Qom, he is the only religious person to have been admitted to the presidential elections and the candidate with the least chance. Together with Raisi, he was a member of the so-called “Death Committee” that approved the execution of thousands of political prisoners in the late 1980s. Former Minister of Justice under the ultra-conservative presidency of Ahmadinejad and Minister of Justice in the administration of the pragmatic Rohani, he boasts a considerable pedigree in the apparatus: from the bureaucracy to Khamenei’s office, passing through the judiciary and the executive. he was disqualified this year from the elections for the renewal of the Assembly of Experts, the body that will choose the successor to the Supreme Leader.
Only one exponent reformist he was admitted to the presidential race. It’s about MASSOUD PEZESHKIAN, 70 years old of Azeri origin, raised three children alone after the death of his wife in an accident: a member of parliament for two decades, in addition to moderates and reformists, his candidacy is also aimed at the largest minority in the country, the approximately 18 million of Azeris. Pezeshkian spoke out against the government’s lack of transparency during the nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, while in Morality Police custody. He is a trained doctor and previously served as health minister under former reformist president Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005). He has been outspoken in criticizing the government on the issue ofcompulsory hijab.
He is a supporter of the Iranian Nuclear Program Agreement (JCPOA). He promised to improve relations with the United States, accusing his conservative rivals of having ruined the economy by not doing enough to revive the JCPOA, from which Trump’s US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 but which had led to the revocation of some sanctions. Pezeshkian appointed the former famous foreign minister, Javad Zarif, as his foreign policy advisor and hinted that under his presidency he could also review relations with Moscow. He had the endorsement of Khatami (who had instead abstained in the March parliamentary elections) and one of the leaders of the Green Wave, Mehdi Karroubi. While condemning the Raisi administration as incapable of solving the country’s problems, he never went so far as to openly criticize Khamenei. He also supported the regime’s fundamental principles that the United States is the main cause of tensions in the region.
