Vladimir Putin opens to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The president of Russia, on the day in which he formalizes the overall commitment of 700 thousand men in the ‘special operation’, suggests dialogue by setting as conditions the halt to Kiev’s entry into NATO and the recognition of the status quo of the war: the regions occupied – but not wholly controlled – should be considered part of Russia. Volodymyr ZelenskyUkrainian president, doesn’t even take the ‘proposal’ into consideration: “An ultimatum already heard, words from Hitler”, he cuts it short.
Putin’s message announcing the deployment is in fact nothing new. Already in the past, and more than once, the Russian president has raised the possibility of reaching a negotiated solution. In reality, Moscow has always laid unacceptable foundations for Ukraine, starting with Kiev’s renunciation of its territories. Now, while Zelensky welcomes 90 leaders to a peace conference in Switzerland, Putin takes back part of the stage.
The truce proposal becomes the basis for further reflections and observations by analysts and experts. The Institute for the study of war (ISW), an American think tank that monitors the progress of the conflict that began in February 2022, highlights that Putin’s proposal cannot be considered credible for a series of reasons.
Because the truce is convenient for Putin
In particular, the ceasefire would not prevent Russia from resuming its offensive to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state: Moscow “would use every respite to prepare future offensive operations in Ukraine”, observes the ISW. The military intervention in Crimea and Donbass in 2014, moreover, “violated numerous international commitments undertaken by Russia to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including the recognition of independence in 1991 and the commitment taken with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum” with which Moscow made a commitment not to undermine Kiev’s sovereignty.
“A ceasefire would allow Russia to rebuild damaged forces, allocate resources to a large-scale offensive and increase its military industry effort without the burden of immediate operational needs in Ukraine.”
Furthermore, Putin could use the break to “prepare more reliable armed forces to conduct a series of offensive operations aimed at subverting the Kiev government, achieving the demilitarization of the country and”, ultimately, “conquering it”. Ukraine could also benefit from a break in hostilities but, according to the ISW, “the Kremlin could expect – reasonably – that the freezing of the front line would make Western support less timely” to Kiev: when the war resumes, therefore, the two countries would arrive in different conditions.
Why Putin cannot give up on victory in Ukraine
The ISW outlines a post-war scenario, in the event of a possible Russian victory. Moscow’s forces could deploy along Europe’s eastern flank from the Black Sea to Finland. Defeating Ukraine would allow Putin to erase a threat and cut off a potential adversary in the event of a “possible conventional war” with NATO.
The ISW goes further and considers other aspects: Putin, with Ukraine under control, would have additional resources and men to use. “Putin and the Kremlin view a victory in Ukraine as a prerequisite for fighting a war with NATO and any ceasefire or agreement that does not provide for Ukraine’s capitulation” would be deemed “a temporary pause in the effort to destroy a Ukrainian state independent”.
It is therefore predictable that the Russian president will continue to periodically refer to a hypothesis of a negotiated solution to the conflict. The first opening dates back to December 2022 when, according to the ISW, Moscow aimed to slow down the process that would lead the West to supply tanks to Kiev. The script repeated itself a year later, in the winter between 2023 and 2024, in the months in which the United States was mired in a long internal debate that slowed the sending of military aid to Ukraine. Putin’s apparent willingness to negotiate could have taken hold at a particular moment in the conflict, with Zelensky in a difficult situation and significantly weaker at a possible table.
Now, the new ‘openness’ of the Russian president, coinciding with another crucial phase of the war: Ukraine has just received the OK from its Western partners and has started using NATO weapons against military targets in Russia.
