Now that many allies of theUkraine they gave the green light to use the supplied weapons to hit targets inRussia (only under certain conditions) experts say the move will pave the way for new targets, but it may not be the silver bullet Ukraine is hoping for. The lifting of the restrictions, according to the US website “Business Insider”, will help Ukraine repel Russian attacks, especially on its borders, but it comes late, with Ukraine having to deal with serious shortages of ammunition and manpower, analysts and war experts explained to the site. For these missions, Ukraine is also likely to lack Western intelligence support to locate high-value targets well beyond the front lines.
“It’s so late,” Keir Giles, a senior adviser at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program, told Business Insider. “It’s been more than two years since such a decision should have been made,” he said, blaming US delays and slow decision-making. The ability to strike inside Russia would strengthen Ukraine, but it is unclear whether it would fundamentally change the course of the war, said Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and Eastern European politics at the Free University of Berlin. “The military logic of allowing Ukraine to use weapons against targets in Russia is simple,” he said, “but there are structural limitations that Ukraine faces.”
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DELAY
Ukraine’s allies have sent billions of dollars in military aid since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022, but with the caveat that it was not allowed to use its weapons to strike targets on Russian soil. Many feared that crossing that line could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin and escalate the conflict while Ukraine has few ways to strike attack planes or troops threatening it from Russian territory. But this view appears to have changed with the launch of a border offensive near Kharkiv, in north-eastern Ukraine.
On Tuesday, France said Ukraine should be allowed to use Western weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only sites that Russia uses to launch attacks on Ukraine. A day earlier, lawmakers from all 32 NATO states signed a statement calling on alliance members to allow attacks on military targets inside Russia. And the United States, which has repeatedly said it will not allow Ukraine to use supplied weapons to strike Russia, appears to have changed its tune. Three officials told “Politico” on Thursday that Ukraine can now use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike inside Russia. One of them said Ukraine could only use U.S.-supplied weapons to respond to Russian forces hitting or preparing to hit them in Kharkiv, where Russia has seized more territory and threatens the country’s second-largest city .
STOP TO FREE ZONES
In recent weeks, Ukraine has faced new Russian offensives, especially in Kharkiv. A Ukrainian commander told the Times of London that his unit had been targeting Russian troops gathering across the border for weeks but had not been allowed to attack. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has repeatedly pleaded with the country’s partners to allow him to use Western weapons to target Russian soldiers across the border. According to Giles, lifting the restrictions would provide “enormous” help to Ukraine in repelling incoming Russian offensives, as well as targeting Russia’s warfare capabilities. “This would be a big step forward because Russia would no longer have sanctuary zones from which to prepare and launch these attacks,” he said. He also pointed out that Ukraine could launch the same type of military campaign it is waging against Russia’s Black Sea fleet, where Kiev has successfully stopped Russia’s vastly superior navy despite having no real navy. own. This is a “demonstration of the results that Ukraine could achieve if it did not have these restrictions to hit Russian territory itself,” Giles said.
AIR OPERATIONS
John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied tubular artillery and missile systems such as the U.S.-supplied Himars to target Russian artillery across the border it was a “no-brainer”. “It is unfair to keep Ukraine idle until Russian forces cross the border, or to silence Ukrainian weapons when Russian artillery fires from across the border,” he argued. Western-supplied missiles, such as Storm Shadow and Atacms, could also hit some Russian air bases that launch planes for glide bomb attacks. However, he explained that it will not be enough to turn the tide in favor of Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE
Ukraine may also struggle to develop the intelligence needed to quickly find and strike targets farther inside Russia. Earlier this month, anonymous Ukrainian officials told the New York Times that they need more intelligence and real-time information from allies, the US and the EU, on targets in Russia. It is unclear whether the United States will reverse its position and offer intelligence to support these attacks. Without it, Ukraine’s targets will be limited to satellite imagery, drone surveillance and what its informants can spot on the ground. This is not the only pressing issue. Libman, a professor at the Free University of Berlin, said that if Ukraine’s lack of troops and dwindling artillery shells remain unaddressed, Ukraine will continue to face “major” problems on the battlefield. “This does not mean that allowing Ukraine to strike targets in Russia will not help, but it is clearly not the silver bullet to win the war,” he said.
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