Will Ukraine lose the war in 2024? The former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command has warned that Kiev could be defeated by Russia this year. General Sir Richard Barrons told the BBC there was “a serious risk” of this happening. The reason, he says, is “because Ukraine may come to believe it cannot win.”
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“And when it gets to that point, why will people still want to fight and die, just to defend the indefensible?”, continues the general. Ukraine is not at that point yet. But its forces are short of ammunition, troops and air defenses. Last year’s much-heralded counteroffensive failed to dislodge the Russians from the territory they had conquered and now Moscow is preparing for a summer offensive.
The Russian counteroffensive
So what will it look like and what are its likely strategic objectives? “The shape of the Russian offensive that will happen is quite clear,” says General Barrons. “We are seeing Russia beating the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition and a surplus of people strengthened by the use of new weapons.”
Ukraine is now desperately short of ammunition. “At some point this summer,” says General Barrons, “we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than just breaking through with small gains to maybe trying to break through the Ukrainian lines.” If that “We would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them.”
The direction of the attack
Last year the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack: from the direction of Zaporizhzhia south towards the Sea of Azov. They planned accordingly and successfully blunted Ukraine’s advance. Now the situation is on the other foot, as Russia masses its troops and keeps Kiev wondering where it will attack next. “One of the challenges facing the Ukrainians,” says Dr. Jack Watling, senior researcher in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Whitehall thinktank, “is that the Russians have a choice where to commit their forces.” The front line is very long and the Ukrainians must be able to defend it all.”
“The Ukrainian army will lose ground,” says Dr. Watling. “The question is: how much and which population centers will be affected?”. It is quite possible that the Russian General Staff has not yet decided which direction to indicate as the main effort. But it is possible to broadly divide the various options into three broad areas.
Kharkiv
“Kharkiv,” says Dr. Watling, “is certainly vulnerable.” As Ukraine’s second city, located dangerously close to the Russian border, Kharkiv is a tempting target for Moscow. It is now being hit daily by Russian missile attacks, with Ukraine unable to field sufficient air defenses to repel the lethal mix of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles aimed in its direction. “I think this year’s offensive will have as its first objective the exit from Donbass”, adds General Barrons, “and the eyes will be on Kharkiv, which is located about 29 km from the Russian border, an important objective” .
Donbass
The area of eastern Ukraine known as Donbass has been at war since 2014, when Moscow-backed separatists declared themselves “people’s republics.” In 2022, Russia illegally annexed the two oblasts, or provinces, of Donbass, Donetsk and Luhansk. This is where most of the land fighting has taken place over the past 18 months. Ukraine made enormous efforts, both in terms of manpower and resources, in an attempt to hold first the city of Bakhmut and then Avdiivka.
Zaporizhzhia
This is also an attractive prize for Moscow. The southern Ukrainian city with more than 700,000 inhabitants (in peacetime) is located dangerously close to the Russian front. It is also something of a thorn in Russia’s side, as it is the capital of the oblast of the same name that Russia illegally annexed, and yet the city still lives freely in Ukrainian hands. But the formidable defenses that Russia built last year south of Zaporizhzhia, in fair expectation of a Ukrainian attack, would now complicate a Russian advance from there. The so-called Surovikin Line, consisting of triple layers of defenses, is crossed by the largest and most densely populated minefield in the world. Russia could partially dismantle it, but its preparations would likely be exposed. Russia’s strategic goal this year may not even be territorial. It may simply be to crush Ukraine’s fighting spirit and convince its Western supporters that this war is a lost cause. Dr. Jack Watling believes that the Russian goal is “to try to generate a sense of hopelessness.”
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