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by Marco Santopadre*
Foreign Pages, 1 July 2024 – In France the expected, historic victory of the far right took place, although to a slightly lesser extent compared to the polls on the eve of the day and the exit polls announced yesterday at 8pm, immediately after the polls closed in the big cities (in most in some French locations, however, the counting had already begun at 6.00 pm).
The triumph of the far right
Early elections called the same evening as the European vote by President Emmanuel Macron after the defeat of his centrist movement “Ensemble” The National Rally has come, on a day characterized by a record turnout rate – the highest since 1997 – which created long queues at many polling stations. 66.71% of eligible voters went to the polls, with a jump of 19% compared to two years ago.
The party of Marine Le Pen and the young Jordan Bardella (28 years old) obtained 33.15% and about 10 million votes. A triumph compared to the 2022 legislative elections, when the Rassemblement National, already in strong growth, had stopped at 18.7%. The RN elected 39 deputies yesterday, including Marine Le Pen and Sébastien Chenu.
The left resists
In second place was the New Popular Front, hastily formed by the left and center-left parties two weeks ago, overcoming the rivalries that had paralyzed the NUPES (Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale), a similar alliance that had run in the past legislative elections. Together socialists, France Insoumise, ecologists, communists and anti-capitalists obtained 28% of the vote and almost 9 million votes, electing 32 deputies in the first round. In 2022, Nupes had collected 6 million votes and 26%, to which we must add the results of other smaller lists that this time joined the alliance.
In short, the NFP confirms its political space and mobilizes new voters but in percentage terms it does not break through compared to the last elections, regressing in many constituencies far from the big cities. Furthermore, the moderate wing represented by the socialists has significantly increased its weight in the alliance, growing to obtain 14%.
Historic defeat for Macron
The defeat of the outgoing parliamentary majority and of the tenant of the Elysée, Emmanuel Macron, is undeniable, even if with 20% and nearly 7 million votes “Ensemble pour la Republique” recovers a little oxygen compared to the 14% of the European elections. But in the first round, the Macronians of “Renaissance”, with their allies of “Horizons” and “MoDem”, elect only 2 deputies. In 2022 “Ensemble” had placed itself in the lead with 25.75% and 8 million votes. The president’s appeal to vote for the centrists to act as a “bulwark” against the opposing extremisms represented by Le Pen and Mélenchon only worked in part.
Yesterday’s vote also significantly reduced the neo-Gaullists (centre-right) divided between those who launched a desistance pact with Marine Le Pen (and who obtained around 4%) and the majority of the Républicains who remained independent, who alone took 6.6%.
Reconquête, the far-right extremist party led by Eric Zemmour who ultimately failed to ally himself with Le Pen and who instead lost members to the Rassemblement National – starting with Marion Maréchal, Marine Le Pen’s niece who returned to the fold for these elections – took only 0.6%.
The real game is played in the second round
Given the very low number of deputies elected yesterday, the fundamental duel will be played on July 7, when in each of the constituencies where yesterday no candidate obtained at least 50%, all those who exceeded 12.5% of those entitled to vote will compete. In 306 cases, 3 candidates will compete and in another 4, 4, and in 297 constituencies, a Le Pen candidate came out on top.
Hence the importance of the desistance pacts and of the “republican front”, invoked above all on the left and in the centre-left to prevent the far right’s 33% from translating into an avalanche of seats.
Le Pen and Bardella are in fact aiming to obtain an absolute majority (at least 290 seats) to try to resist the conditioning of a President of the Republic who will remain at the Elysée until 2027, hoping that a possible government of the Rassemblement will consume the far right in the meantime.
While the leaders of the centre-left and left parties immediately made it clear that they will withdraw the NFP candidates where they came third in order to converge the “republican” (i.e. anti-fascist) vote on the best placed candidates opposed to the RN, it is not at all certain that even the Macronians do the same.
For Macron and the right, Le Pen and Melenchon are equal
Yesterday, the president, who with his authoritarian and liberal policies – starting from the highly contested pension reform and cuts to the welfare state, passing through the extremist position of support for Ukraine – must be considered the first responsible for the boom in the far-right vote, called for the creation of a “clearly democratic and republican” bloc to block the road to the RN in the second round. At the moment, however, it does not seem that “Ensemble” intends to give up in all the constituencies where the candidates of La France Insoumise are better placed than the centrist ones, effectively favoring the party of Le Pen and Bardella.
In an interview after the vote, the outgoing Minister of Economy and leading Macron exponent, Bruno Le Maire, equated the radical left and the far right, stating that if «the Rassemblement National is a danger for the Republic, France Insoumise is a danger for the nation” provoking protests from the left and some criticism from his own camp.
Even the Republicans, supported by significant parts of the economic and intellectual establishment, have decided that they will give instructions to their voters on a “case by case” basis, to prevent the victory of the most left-wing candidates.
On the opposite front, even for many voters of the radical left it will be difficult to vote for the exponents of the former Macronian majority responsible for the most contested and anti-popular measures.
While we wait to find out how many seats the former National Front, skilfully cleaned up in recent years by the daughter of founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, will win, it is likely that the second round of voting on July 7 will produce a parliament without a clear majority and a period of political instability and economic for a France which appears – primarily to its inhabitants – to be in sharp decline compared to the past, both on a hegemonic and economic level. Foreign Pages
* Marco Santopadre, journalist and essayist, former director of Radio Città Aperta, is an analyst of the Mediterranean area, the Middle East and Africa. He also writes about Spain, Latin America and national liberation movements. He collaborates with Pagine Esteri, il Manifesto, El Salto Diario and Berria
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