As if to prepare for an inevitable outcome, Emmanuel Macron he denounced the “arrogance” of the cohabitation that the National Rally intends to impose on him if he comes to the government of France. Tomorrow we will vote for the first round of the “most important elections in republican history” as many have said in these three weeks of lightning campaign. Until the end, the representatives of the three blocs went to battle; first of all Marine Le Pen, guardian of the far-right prime minister candidate Jordan Bardella and determined to impose all the power of the executive on the Elysée, if the voters confirm the favorable poll predictions. Yesterday he reiterated that no, a government Bardella will not have Thierry Breton as European Commissioner (“Macron will not be displeased as he is projecting himself into a victory he cannot achieve”) as already announced by the president in Brussels and that no, France will not send long-range weapons to Ukraine (“which would make France a co-belligerent country) and finally that no, “France will not send ground troops”.
THE SURVEYS
The latest polls confirm the first ones: the far right of the Rassemblement National allied with the Gaullists of Eric Ciotti is at 35-36%, yesterday for the first time the upper range of the projection in seats reached an absolute majority above 289. The left of the Front Populaire is at 28-29%, increased compared to 2022 but does not seem capable of undermining Bardella alone. The Ensemble coalition that supports the president is at 20, falling from the current 250 seats to 80-100 deputies: a debacle. But much, if not everything, will be played out in the second round, at the time of the run-offs and the new alliances that will be created from Monday. Since yesterday, cracks have begun to appear among the Macronians, who until the end did not want to make a distinction between the far right of the RN and the far left of France Insoumise, the main party of the coalition of the left. Macron promised that there will be “great clarity” in the voting instructions for the second round on 7 July: “I have already had the opportunity to say that on the far left there are people who have expressed positions on anti-Semitism, violence and anti-parliamentarism which I disapprove of, but which I do not cause a general confusion.” As if to announce the construction of an anti-far right dam in the second round. Same tone from the outgoing prime minister and candidate for prime minister Gabriel Attal: “I will do everything to prevent the extreme forces, and in particular the far right, from winning the elections.” Until the end – the traditional pre-voting silence has been in force since midnight – clashes continued.
The Macron camp continued to criticize the Bardellians’ proposal to ban French people with a second passport from accessing “sensitive” places. An old warhorse of the far right of founding father Jean-Marie-Le Pen, the idea of sanctioning French people with dual nationality is considered unconstitutional and discriminatory. It matters little. Yesterday the outgoing member of the Rassemblement National Roger Chudeau, considered as a possible future education minister, cited the appointment of Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, François Hollande’s former education minister, as a bad example: it was “a mistake” he said, because having dual nationality “poses a problem of dual loyalty.” If Marine Le Pen distanced herself from Chudeau’s statements (“they do not reflect our line”), the person directly involved Vallaud-Belkacem instead thanked him “for this beautiful demonstration of what the RN in power means: incompetence, racism and lies”.
A record turnout is expected (up to 16 points more than in the 1922 elections) and many candidates could be elected as early as tomorrow evening, in the first round.
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