But it is a bruised majority, which still has to decide whether to go to the right or to the left to remain stable. A crucial choice for the fate of the Old Continent and we will see why. Its leader Ursula von der Leyen, symbol of a more united and resilient Europe in the face of anti-European forces, is about to be reconfirmed after a series of agreements in the European Council. The reconfirmation will have to pass from the gauntlet of the Strasbourg Parliament to the plenary assembly from 16 to 19 July, when the new legislature will be officially inaugurated and where the majority has a 37-vote margin and the snipers (the election is by secret ballot) there are many lurking.
Therefore the Ursula majority, faced with the winds of European sovereignism and nationalism, needs a new ally. Negotiations are frenetic these days, in the grand bazaar of European politics, where, in addition to the presidency, the appointments of commissioners (the only certain one is that of Foreign Affairs, the Estonian liberal Kaja Kallis) and of the presidencies of the legislative bodies are at stake and executives. Informal dinners followed one another and gave rise to white smoke over the von der Leyen president.
The package was discussed by German Chancellor Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez for the Socialists, by their Polish and Greek counterparts Tusk and Mitsotakis for the People’s Party, by French President Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte for the Liberals. The two seats (Council and Parliament) often make the leaders politically ambiguous, since it is not clear whether they speak at an institutional or political level or as leaders of the political families in play. For example, Macron in the Council has a strong power as French President but on the political level in Parliament he risks being almost annulled by Le Pen.
To all this we must add another factor. As is known, the EPP, Manfred Weber’s centre-right party which combines democratic, liberal and Christian values, by far the winner of the last elections, is making a loud statement. He also wanted the presidency of the Council, even if the agreements led to Antonio Costa from the Portuguese left (whose seat is Palazzo Europa), perhaps only for half the mandate to be alternated with our Enrico Letta and this makes the agreements incandescent. But above all, due to a slim majority (not to mention the internal “enemies”), the formation of Weber, von der Leyen and Tajani, which has focused its electoral campaign on economic issues, must decide who to ally with: on the left there are the Greens, on the right there is the ECR, basically Giorgia Meloni’s party.
At the moment the popular people are in the middle of the ford. Allying with the greens means strengthening “green” and industrial reconversion policies. Making a pact with our prime minister is instead equivalent to embracing the migration policies (but perhaps it would be better to call them anti-migration) supported by the right.
In the meantime there will be the French elections, with the tug of war between the government majority and the National Rassemblement, which Meloni wouldn’t mind, because it would shift the European balance further to the right. In short, unknowns remain. Allies of the EPP, which has so far had a more moderate approach on immigration, promoting integration and respect for human rights, while maintaining a firm position on the need for effective border management, have little argument to raise their heads. But it is also clear from these cumbersome negotiations that the Union risks remaining distant from ordinary citizens.
