A growing economy, but that of Liguria has slowed down. It is the one-sentence summary of the Bank of Italy’s report on the regional economy. The estimated GDP figure is increasing by 0.8%, «but we are on a trend similar to the national figure − explains the director of the Genoa office Raffaella Di Donato − in Liguria we are in the tertiary sector, which represents the most salient aspect of the regional economy, tourist flows, although slowing down, still show a good growth rate, we are around 4%. On the other hand, there has been a decline in merchant traffic which is suffering from an unfavorable international situation.”
Stay the construction data is also good, although somewhat slowing down, both in terms of private construction and public works. Employment figures are good. The hours worked of the construction funds mark a +7.7% which however is less than half of last year.”
In the’industry there was a substantial unchanged production and turnover and sales also showed a slight decline. «However − underlines Di Donato − even in the industrial sector a positive figure is that of investments which have actually increased above all because companies have equipped themselves for the purchase of capital goods and this is a good figure».
Davide Revelli, of the territorial economic analysis and research division of the Bank of Italy, highlights: «The turnover of the industry is slightly decreasing and exports remain stable, where the export of boats stands out. Investments are increasing. 20% of companies have carried out operations to improve energy efficiency.”
Furthermore, thanks to a survey of companies with more than 20 employees, it emerged that the share of profitable companies remained stable (85%).
The job market went well: theemployment rises by 2.7% with the female component at +5%, a better figure than in the North West. Net permanent hiring also increased. The unemployment rate has decreased and is just over 6% lower nationally. The activity rate is 71%, lower than the national rate. The use of the Redundancy Fund also decreased.
In the tertiary sector the tourism is still increasing (+4% attendance thanks to the foreign component), but seems to be stabilising. Cruises recorded strong growth (+55%). Instead the Home sales are decreasing (-9.7%) in line with Italy.
The rise in interest rates has affected the loan application which decreased by 6%. «The supply conditions have become less favorable − Revelli points out − we are also talking about less willingness of banks to grant loans. The restrictive policy has drained liquidity from the system.” As regards mortgages, demand fell by 2.3%. Of the stock, 70% is at a fixed rate. This reduces family vulnerability.
On the income inflation took its toll, despite the renewals of national collective agreements, a drop of 0.8% was recorded. Consumption continued to increase, albeit less than last year. Growth is 1.3%, similar to that of Italy.
There credit quality gives slight signs of worsening: flows of new impaired positions emerge (+1.2%).
Family deposits decreased on financial savings (-5.7%), but the choice of securities for safekeeping affected both families and businesses by +21.8%.
Impacted quantity and price effect.
The ECB’s lowering of interest rates will have a beneficial effect on the economy. At the moment regarding the credit market, the situation of tightening supply conditions has certainly not favored the expansion of demand: «In 2023 we are on a decline of approximately 3.8% in terms of overall loans. The easing of monetary restrictions could also encourage a easing of supply conditions.”
The distinctive feature of savings, characteristic of the Ligurians, continues to be present. The inflationary situation and rising interest rates have obviously induced the population, families and savers to shift their investment choices to more profitable options, therefore essentially government bonds and bonds.
The other characteristic feature of the region, in addition to the tourist offer, is that of the maritime traffic. Maritime traffic down -4%, containers also -4.5%. The decline in traffic was recorded above all in the first part of the year. The first quarter of 2024 saw a slight increase in containers.
On prospects 2024 According to the director, it is too early to say that there could be an actual reversal of the trend. Political tensions continue to create uncertainty. «The companies that survived the crises − says Revelli − are stronger than before, this is the only positive fact and the financial health situation today is better than that of previous crises».
