Beyond normal oscillations, i petrol and diesel prices they could soon receive a permanent increase, between 40 and 50 cents per litre. The fuel issue has been going on for some time, since the end of the health emergency, due to the policies adopted by OPEC+. The cartel, which brings together countries in the Middle East, some in Africa and Russia, is trying to keep profits high, in the midst of an ecological transition. This implies a clear cut in oil production, which inevitably impacts all derived products. Recently, the same association extended the policy until 2025, after long internal negotiations. In fact, a clear and unusual split had formed between the member states, each determined to bring grist to their own mill, as it should be.
ETS, Emission Trading System
A new system will be introduced in Europe, responsible for reduce carbon dioxide emissions. According to forecasts, the so-called ETS, acronym for Emission Trading System, will come into force in the mobility sector during 2027 and will perhaps have a strong impact. The objective is to encourage the reduction of the quantities of CO2 and other pollutants in the environment. But, in the opinion of experts and politicians, it will also have a serious effect from an economic point of view. The estimates released by scholars, in fact, invite reflection, above all because, even today, internal combustion vehicles constitute a large part of the fleet in circulation. To see it we don’t need to look that far ahead: in Italy only hybrid cars perform better than petrol units on the market.
Even diesel, often maligned in recent times, represents an important reality. The benefits continue to be a strong attraction, so much so that relative divestment in the short to medium term appears unlikely. The idea occurred to the BMW Group, close sources report, only to then present three new diesel engines. The prices of electric vehicles hinder diffusion, especially where the average income of the population tends downwards. Just to stay within national borders, the ecobonuses sold like hotcakes last week seem to have overwhelmingly confirmed the thesis.
Too optimistic estimates: how much a ton could cost
With the gradual transition to BEVs, the government will have to identify a new revenue, capable of compensating for the lower revenue from excise duties. However, increases will also be applied to traditional engines with ETS 2. Following the European tax on highly polluting industries, it was issued in 2023, and will be extended to the transport sector. The Brussels report indicated a maximum average increase of 45 euros per tonne of fuel. This would translate into an increase in pump prices of 10 cents per liter on petrol and 12 cents on diesel. Apparently, however, the figure disclosed is much lower than the actual one. Pieter Liese, one of the main architects of the legislation, recognized this in an interview with Euroactiv. Towards the end of last year, a Berlin research institute had calculated a possible fuel costs at 200 euros per ton: four times as much as the community body’s initial expectations.
