Rome, 10 June 2024 – Very good Brothers of Italy, very good PD, Very good Avs, Well Forza Italia, not very well there League, bad United States of Europe, bad Calendar, the Cinquestelle are very bad. Europe is especially bad, not only in the sense of the European Union, which in the midst of two wars, one of which is in the heart of its territory and which it supports through its army, sees the leaderships of its large countries, Italy aside, leaving a lot weakened by the vote.
The comparison between the 2024 European elections and the 2022 policies
It is a safe bet that last night in the Kremlin they were not at all dissatisfied and we would not be surprised to learn that Putin had toasted with a bit of vodka, or perhaps with Berlusconi’s Lambrusco: Macron is beaten by his rival Bardella and calls the legislative elections, the German Scholz is in crisis, even in Spain the socialist Sanchez is overtaken by the People’s Party and in general the parties opposed to the war in Ukraine and European solidarity have achieved good results everywhere. Now the Tsar can only hope for Trump’s victory in November and then he will have hit the jackpot. This is the political data that emerges from yesterday’s vote, the “true” data, beyond the inevitable but slightly politicized calculations on the seats that one alliance or another may take (Ursula yes/Ursula no ). Right and left increasingly appear to be twentieth-century categories destined to be overcome by the pressure of events, which in this case are war and the long and complex after-effects of globalization, of which sovereignism is the illegitimate child. It is reality that defines the political agenda, not ideologies, at most ideas survive.
According to the two in the morning projections, no excessively significant shock on the internal and international balance emerges from Italy, contrary to what happened in the last two European rounds (who remembers Renzi’s 41 and Salvini’s 34?). The prime minister Giorgia Meloni she is the only one among the leaders of the big countries to increase the result compared to the last political vote and in general the centre-right parties are growing even if only slightly. It grows the Democratic Party too, not a little, considering the 19 percent of the political elections of twenty months ago and the 22.7 of the last European ones, when however the political picture was radically different, and the PD was referred to by forces that are now antagonistic to it (the Renzian component, the calendars). The leadership of Elly Schlein comes out strengthened.
From a superficial examination, the only one allowed by the first projections, it seems that the media mechanism of the confrontation between the two leaders has brought life to both, as was also their predictions and desires. Indeed, the vote seems to bring Italy back to the bipolar scheme born with the second republic and put aside with the explosion of the grillini. Schlein can lead a Democratic Party that is probably more pacified (however pacified the Democratic Party may be) and set her sights on an objective that is perhaps more challenging than the current European elections, i.e. next year’s regional elections when the regions where the Democratic Party still governs go to the vote, and the outcome of which is far from obvious everywhere. Let us remember that, among others, voting is taking place in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, and defeat in even just one of the last two red regions would put all the internal balances of the Nazarene back into play.
From the face face to face between the two leaders instead come out crushed in several, in particular the Five Stars movement, which is greatly reduced. Let’s not forget that at the 1922 elections the Cinquestelle achieved a formidable recovery in the last few weeks when attention turned to citizenship income. Now the income has been abolished, the south has deserted the polls and it is no surprise that Conte has collapsed. The centrists also fare poorly, too Calendar which certainly doesn’t reach the threshold of 4, either United States of Europe, which also appear to be just below the threshold, and with a final result that is lower than expected. Let’s remember that in ’22 Emma Bonino took almost 3 percent, and Italia viva until a few weeks ago stood at around 2.5/3 percent. If the result is then compared with the data of the Third Pole obtained twenty months ago (almost 8) you get the idea of the political capital that in a few months the fights between the many roosters have thrown to the wind and which will now be increasingly difficult to catch up again.
The other government parties hold sway more or less, regardless of the derby between them Forza Italia and Lega, the outcomes of which will be assessable only with the final results, also with respect to preferences. We are referring in particular to Vannacci, and to the data that the general will have obtained, which will be able to provide an indication of the type of process that could be unleashed within the Northern League. The green-rainbow left also did well, taking advantage of the visibility obtained with the Salis case and with the issues relating to the two wars (let’s not forget Gaza).
And here is the real political point, as we said above, of these elections: beyond the overall stability of the Ppe in Europethose groups that oppose the sending of weapons to Ukraine are not doing badly, in Italy and abroad (not bad for example Santoro, who goes well beyond two with a list put together at the last minute). Macron has always been Zelensky’s most solid ally, and it is Macron who emerges worse from yesterday’s vote. The others follow. Together with the low turnout (which after the elections we generally talk about again in five years) this is the aspect that will make us think most.
