Azar Nafisi is upset, happy, agitated. The Iranian writer who, more than anyone else, has been able to describe the ambitions and fears of a fractured people up to the extreme synthesis of her last book, Reading dangerously, the subversive power of literature in difficult times (Adelphi), follows the troubles of his country from Washington. President Raisi is dead, the theocratic regime cries, the people laugh, the world waits. What does the West expect though, he says to The print, eludes her: the Middle East is at the center of the global narrative as never before and yet ideological encrustations continue to hinder mutual understanding, mercy. And once again, gathering around the mourning of the regime, “the West misses the appointment with History”.
Who will really replace President Raisi until the next elections and what scenarios are now opening up in Iran?
«What struck me most after the announcement of Ebrahim Raisi’s death is how divided, iconically divided, the country is. On the one hand those who cry and pray for the president’s soul, on the other the fireworks, the celebrations, the shouts of jubilation. A distance between the regime and the population that has never been so important, serious, unbridgeable. I think it will get worse and worse, that the gap will increase, that it will be increasingly difficult for the Tehran authorities to control the anger of the streets.”
Was it really an accident or is it possible that someone from the outside intervened, a sabotage, a disturbing action among the many attributable to Israel?
«I don’t know, all possibilities are open. Raisi was certainly one of the old guard, someone inside the regime. How it went, perhaps, we will never know. But I know one thing, I am deeply disappointed by the reaction of European democracies, including Italy. I’m not saying that they should have rejoiced at Raisi’s death like us Iranians but they could choose a side and they chose the Islamic Republic, they sent official condolences to a bunch of murderers gathered around the body of one of them. It’s terrible, deplorable.”
What did you expect when faced with the disappearance of a head of state, even of a despotic state?
«The EU countries have associated the government and its supposed people in mourning, an insult to millions of people who are not crying at all. That government does not represent anyone. Was it necessary to send a message of condolence? Silence was enough. It was not necessary to condemn the Shiite theocracy, it would have been enough not to associate it with the people, to remain silent. I understand the reasons for diplomacy, but there must be a red line, a threshold beyond which one cannot go. For the Iranian people, Raisi was synonymous with death. How long will the West pretend not to understand? Sometimes I have the impression that democracies underestimate how contagious freedom is, how a free Iran would strengthen Europe and the United States, how our enemies today, from the Shiite theocracy to the Russia that supports it, are yours tomorrow ».
On the Middle Eastern scene itself, Raisi’s death adds to the Hague’s request to issue an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Hamas leader Sinwar, both guilty of war crimes. How does this convergence impact the balance of an already very unstable region?
«For the moment the autocrats, all the autocrats, are winning. I have to admit it. But it won’t be like this forever. As long as the Israeli-Palestinian war continues, Netanyahu and Hamas will both benefit from the chaos and take advantage of it. Gaza is heartbreaking. However, we must not forget the treacherous role played behind the scenes by the ayatollahs’ Iran. And Israel is also playing a game that I don’t trust.”
The two-peoples-two-states solution remains on the shelf. Wouldn’t it be better to start planning that of the people for three states, including democratic Iran?
«Democracy is a model that encourages emulation but so does despotism. The Islamic Republic of Iran devours the democratic ambitions of its children and undermines the certainties of democracy as a principle. I am not an expert in geopolitics but I have the impression that both Netanyahu and Hamas benefit from the war, which helps him to avoid ending up in prison and the others to re-legitimize themselves after having sacrificed thousands of Palestinians on the altar of October 7, the news of an announced revenge”.
In American universities, where you teach, the Palestinian cause is defended but the Iranian one is ignored.
«American campuses, unfortunately, have become ideological and politicized places that no longer have anything to do with training, research and understanding. I would like the university protest to lead to a dialogue between different communities, perhaps apparently enemies. If those demonstrating for Gaza do not understand that the Iranians are also asking for freedom, they are in bad faith. He’s wrong, the Iran of the “woman, life, freedom” revolution shows us a new path: how to become democratic without giving in to the temptation to rape the enemy.”
Who will succeed Raisi in the near future and how will the change take place?
«I believe that the regime is internally divided, that there are defections. Every day we hear news of theocracy officials disassociating themselves. The death of Raisi and his other associates will cause further chaos, tensions over the succession, internal feuds that will translate into new violence against activists.”
More repression inside, he says. Is out? How will the internal chaos impact the so-called “axis of resistance”?
«Aid to the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah will not decrease. It is a machine that cannot be stopped, the only possible fuel is violence, war. Outside and Inside. The Iranians know this but they have no choice. The women’s revolution will continue because it must, it cannot go back.”
What if Israel attacked Iran?
«It could, but today Israel is weak. It would be a risk. Also because the Iranians want to move on but they don’t want to do it by force and certainly not by external force. They will make it, we will make it by staying on the streets, aware that peace in Iran is peace in the region and peace in the region is at least a good contribution to peace in the world.”
