Let’s start with the main point. A replacement of candidate Joe Biden on the fly remains unlikely. However, this eventuality has never been discussed as much as it is now, after the president’s terrible performance in the televised debate with Trump. Can Democrats replace Biden with another candidate? In theory, yes, but there is no codified procedure, and any hypothesis of this type inevitably requires a voluntary step back by Biden himself.
The hypothesis of withdrawal before the Convention
If Biden were to withdraw before the Democratic Convention, scheduled for August in Chicago, the delegates would then be “uncommitted,” that is, no longer bound to vote for the candidate who won the primaries held in the various states. Let’s keep in mind that the Democratic delegates are not defined as “bound” like the Republican ones, that is, obliged to vote for the candidate of their choice, but simply “pledged”: they have made a simple promise, nothing more.
At the Convention, the presidential candidate and his vice-president are the subject of two separate votes, so a withdrawal by Biden would not automatically divert the votes to his vice-president Kamala Harris. Anyone who wanted to come forward, even Harris herself, would have to seek the consensus of individual delegates, and a first vote without a result would make the Convention “brokered”, that is, open and without a candidate already in pectore.
It should be kept in mind that the delegates are obscure local officials who experience participation in the conventions as a kind of reward trip. Suddenly they would end up at the center of national politics and their decisions would be very weighty. Only from the second vote onwards would the so-called super delegates, the most experienced and recognized notables of the party, join them.
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The withdrawal hypothesis after the Convention
What if Biden steps aside after the convention? This is even more unlikely, especially since the president would then also be the party’s official nominee. There is no precedent. The Democratic Party statute provides that in the event of the candidate’s death or serious impediment, the task of deciding who to replace him falls to the Democratic National Committee and its 486 members. However, there is no codified procedure.
But who (possibly) in Biden’s place?
Who could replace Biden? That’s part of the problem, because there’s no clear successor among the possible candidates. California Governor Gavin Newsom, one of the most popular, has already stepped aside. A convention with “uncommitted” delegates would hark back to the days when primaries meant little and candidates were decided by backroom deals and party maneuvers.
Things changed after the chaotic 1968 Convention.
That year the event was accompanied by vibrant anti-war protests, just as it could be this year.
That year the convention was held in Chicago. Exactly as will happen this year.
