Historical tour, regardless: the first to start from Italy, the first that will not end in Paris. Legendary tour, most likely: by winning it, Tadej Pogacar would achieve that Giro-Tour double that has been missing since the days of Pantani, at the end of the last century. Tough tour, straight away: the Florence-Rimini with its 3600 meters of altitude difference is the toughest opening stage ever, the Cesenatico-Bologna ends with a couple of hills and the double climb of San Luca. Tough tour, even in France: on the fourth day there is the Galibier, followed by four high-altitude finishes between the Pyrenees and the Alps, the white roads (32 kilometers distributed in 14 sectors in Troyes), and two time trials, 25 kilometers in the Champagne vineyards and 34 in Nice. last day, as had not happened since ’89, the year in which Lemond took the race away from Fignon by just eight seconds. Little Italy (eight riders in all), little hope: the tricolor Bettiol and Ciccone are entrusted with breaking an 85-stage fast (Nibali’s last joy, in 2019). Here are the ten faces nominated for the roll of honor.
Tadej Pogacar. He wins because up to now he has achieved all the seasonal objectives he has set himself, because he has dominated the Giro without wasting energy, because he has companions like Adam Yates and Almeida alongside him who could very well aim for the ranking. He doesn’t win because among the dangers of the Tour there is also that torrid climate which limits his engine.
Jonas Vingegaard. He wins because in three participations he has achieved two successes and a second place, because uphill he has a better gear than the others, because he is not only very strong in the mountains but also in the time trial. He doesn’t win because in the Tour you have to be perfect and after the accident at the beginning of April (broken ribs, pneumothorax) he can’t be.
Primoz Roglic. He wins because he staked everything on this race, because he has an open account with the Tour since Pogacar took it away from him on the last day, because he can count on the support of two strong players like Hindley and Vlasov. He doesn’t win because he is approaching 35 years old and is starting to suffer from this aggressive cycling.
Remco Evenepoel. He wins because he too is a phenomenon, because in the Vuelta and partly in the Giro he has already demonstrated that he knows how to stay high, because when he puts a target in his head he often hits it. He doesn’t win because it’s his debut and because to get to Nice in yellow the time trials aren’t enough, but you have to go just as fast in the mountains.
Carlos Rodriguez. He wins because he has already shown that he is a man for the Grand Tours, because this year he has grown a little at a time, because in the tactical game of Ineos he can count on high-level teammates like Thomas, and Pidcock, in addition to Bernal. He doesn’t win because at 23 he still has a bad day that doesn’t make him lose everything, but compromises it.
Richard Carapaz. He wins because in the grand tours he is used to being in the top rankings, because he has to make up for his unfortunate retirement a year ago after the first stage, because there is enough mountain to show off his skills. He doesn’t win because he hasn’t raced a grand tour for two years and this season he has never looked at his best.
Egan Bernal. He wins because he is among the very few at the start who have already done it, because his approach has been in constant growth, because two years after the crash in training against a bus he seems to be back at his best level. He doesn’t win because against the new generation you have to be very strong and he is not yet.
Enrique Mas He wins because he has always been in the first class carriage both at the Tour and at the Vuelta, because he is someone who is not afraid of anyone in the mountains, because he has not digested the withdrawal of a year ago at the first stage. He does not win because he always gives the impression of making the leap in quality but never succeeds.
Simon Yates. He wins because a year ago he stopped at the foot of the podium, because his brother Adam’s work for Pogacar can benefit him too, because to prepare he followed the same path as a year ago without pushing himself too hard. He doesn’t win because, despite finishing in the top ten a couple of times in France, he has never given the impression of being able to dominate.
Felix Gall. He wins because he has already shown that he can run at the pace of the best, because he is constantly improving, because in this edition there are enough mountains to enhance his skills as an attacker. He does not win because he is not a rooster in the time trial and in the long run this ends up weighing on those who have ambitions of the podium.
