There is a man that anyone, absolutely anyone, would like to avoid in the draw. Of course, we are not talking about a Rafael Nadal situation at Roland Garros (and, for obvious reasons, of course), but Matteo Berrettini, among all the names that can come out of the ballot box, is undoubtedly the most feared among all those at the start of the Championships without seeded status.
Furthermore, the Roman still has a much more than open account with Wimbledon. After the excellent debut in 2018 in the third round format, and after the round of 16 of 2019 in which he “tasted” both the Center Court and Roger Federer with the result of feeling the emotion of the moment too strongly, 2021 was truly his year of him. Final, as never before had an Italian reached it at Wimbledon, and for 2022 everything seemed ready for the repeat: it was unthinkable to consider him less than favorite number 2. Someone, however, had different ideas: Covid-19. And so that edition didn’t see him at the start. He returned in 2023, beat De Minaur and Zverev in sequence, and scared Alcaraz in the round of 16.
Today Berrettini arrives as a tennis player with much more tranquility. In Stuttgart he came close to beating Jack Draper, and that it was a very high level final was further proven by the success of the Brit against the Murcian at Queen’s. At the same time, the Roman lost Marcos Giron from the USA showing clear signs of tiredness, understandable given that he had been missing from competitions at a constant level for too long. One fact, however, stands out among all: of the 19 matches played this year, the former world number 6 lost just five, with a tournament success in Marrakech, a final in Stuttgart, the aforementioned second round in Halle and the defeats on his debut in Monte Carlo (obvious tiredness) and in Miami (against one of the best Murrays of the year).
And, moreover, another ranking represents a confirmation of Berrettini’s dangerousness for anyone who thinks about it. Not the official ATP one, nor the Race, but the one built based on the Elo. According to this ranking, he is in 22nd place (27th taking only 2024 into consideration), a very significant upgrade compared to the current 60th. But there’s more: taking grass alone into consideration, he remains behind Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner. These are excellent reasons to understand Matteo’s real ability to do very well on grass. Clearly, the draw will have to give him a hand. Because it’s one thing to pick out some player who may even be more used to clay and go to Wimbledon without goals, it’s another thing to pick up one of the big names. Of course, it also depends on which big player: for a Mariano Navone (Argentina) who has no relationship with grass there are the first three (counting Djokovic in), Hurkacz and others of recognized value on grass.
