The third and final match of the season will take place this evening in Leipzig‘Italy in the group stage of this European Championship. Currently second in group B, Luciano Spalletti’s team will have to obtain a positive result against Croatia to maintain the same position. In practical terms, winning or drawing changes nothing because – even if Spain loses against Albania and Italy wins against Croatia – the direct clash is to the advantage of the Red Furies.
Win or draw: second place. Round of 16 in Berlin against Switzerland
As mentioned, in the event of a positive result, Italy closes the group in second place, ending up in the lower part of the direct elimination table. The pairing has already been decided: it will be a match against Switzerland, next Saturday at the Olympiastadion in Berlin with kick-off at 6.00 pm.
Defeat of Italy and failure of Albania to win: third place
In case of defeat against Croatia and Albania’s failure to win against Spain, Italy closes group B in third place. At that point, to move forward, Luciano Spalletti’s national team must be among the four best third-placed teams.
Ranking of teams in third place, the current situation (the top four go to the round of 16)
1) Austria: three points in two games. Goal difference: +1
2) Slovakia: three points in two games. DR: 0
3) Hungary: three points in three games. DR: -3
4) Slovenia: two points in two games. DR: 0
5) Albania: one point in two games. DR: -1
6) Czech Republic: one point in two games. DR: -1
With a defeat, especially a narrow one, it is likely that Italy will still be able to move forward. At that point, two possibilities for the round of 16 would open up: either against Portugal on Monday 1 July in Frankfurt or against the winner of group E (the one with Belgium, Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine) on Tuesday 2 July in Munich.
Defeat of Italy and victory of Albania: eliminated
The last possible scenario is the one in which Italy is eliminated after this evening’s match. If Spalletti’s national team loses against Croatia and, at the same time, Albania beats Spain, the Azzurri slip in one fell swoop from second to last place in group B. And we return home.
