The indiscretion of last April 25th was enough to restart the market risk that sees Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin assault the Red Bull fort: if the dominance shown in the Chinese GP seemed to have strengthened the position of Chris Horner at the helm of the world champion team after weeks of tension – to the point that the 50-year-old Englishman had resumed his classic bold attitude complete with the usual teasing towards his rival Toto Wolff -, now the rumors about the possible imminent farewell of the genius designer Adrian Newey risk overturning (for the umpteenth time) the gaming table.
THE SCENARIOS
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There are now no big doubts about the possible destinations of the English engineer, given the fact that Newey is expected to officially communicate his decision to leave to the Red Bull top management in the next few days. The miracle designer could end up in Aston Martin which, through the Arab hydrocarbon giant Aramco, would have sent him an offer estimated at around 100 million over four years, which seems to have been rejected. Ergo the Ferrari hypothesis cannot be ruled out at all. Indeed, as a counterbalance to Saudi petrodollars there is the temptation to embrace the definitive challenge that would make his Guinness World Record-winning career unattainable for many years to come: winning with the Cavallino, perhaps giving Lewis Hamilton his eighth Drivers’ title , it would be there perfect conclusion to rewrite racing history once again.
THE RED DREAM
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Record after record, which seems to wink at those phrases he himself uttered at the end of the 2023 season, as he had confessed to having as his only regret that of not having worked for Ferrari, nor for a champion of the caliber of Hamilton or Fernando Alonso. Understandable reasons that seem to go hand in hand with those that pushed Sir Lewis himself to leave the team that made him a giant to try to become a legend (net of the mountain of millions in wages, given that in both cases it would not be certain of performance pro bono). While waiting to unravel the many doubts, to begin with, from the clauses of the contract expiring in 2025 which could leave Newey on the bench – or, rather, in the “garden” given the long period of gardening leave which he would have to pay for in the move to a rival team -, the counter-offensive of Ferrari’s rivals is preparing.
MERCEDES OFFENSIVE
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An example in this sense comes from Toto Wolff, ready to offer a lifetime contract to Max Verstappen, which could thus also fill the void left by Hamilton spiritually and in terms of coat of arms. According to what was reported by the Germans of F1-Insider – who at the beginning of February were among the first to confirm the existence of the internal investigation against Horner for the much discussed “inappropriate behavior” towards a close collaborator – Toto Wolff in fact has very clear ideas, to the point of having convinced his equal partners in the ownership of the team (Mercedes led by CEO Ola Kallenius and James Ratcliffe’s Ineos) to set up an operation 150 million a year to break Max’s resistance to leaving Red Bull next year. A figure that would be “easily” recoverable thanks to the over 50 million already allocated, but saved after Lewis’ farewell and with the more than 100 million operating profit of the team at the end of the 2023 season.
MEETING IN MIAMI
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The rumors speak of a meeting already scheduled in the days following the next Miami GP, in which Wolff should meet Verstappen and his historic manager Raymond Vermeulen. However, the (lots of) money on the table may not be enough, given that the three-time world champion asks for technical reassurances on the fact that next season’s W15 is capable of changing gear compared to the last disappointing single-seaters designed in Brackley. For this reason, the agreement could also include the attempt to snatch from Red Bull – which instead has to face the epochal challenge of designing in-house, albeit with the external help of Ford, the first hybrid power unit for 2026 (currently the technology is the one left as a legacy by Honda) – some famous technicians: not necessarily Newey, whose arrival at Mercedes would not in any case be an exclusive condition for convincing Max to embrace the project, but also some second line in the magic circle of loyalists of the English geniuswhich would strengthen the working group under the leadership of the confirmed technical director James Allison.
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GRAY EMINENCE
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And then there is also the question related to Helmut Marko: Verstappen has a pharaonic contract with Red Bull until 2028, but the presence of a termination clause is also known which would allow him to free himself from the constraints in the event that the manager – who the Dutch champion considers like a second father – was no longer in the organizational chart of the Anglo-Austrian team. For this reason, always second F1-InsiderMarko would even be willing to step aside and possibly negotiate a similar role in Mercedes with his compatriot and former enemy Toto Wolff in order to play a dirty trick on his internal rival Horner and his Thai counterpart in the power struggle for the leadership of the team. The sublimation of his historic role as an eminence grise in the team. What is certain is that Jos Verstappen’s words seem to be back in fashion Daily Mail on the opening weekend of the F1 World Championship in Bahrain: “If Horner stays in his place, the team will eventually implode”. Prophetic. At least until the next twist in this infinite soap opera…
