EU, von der Leyen trembles at the Parliament’s vote with a narrow majority

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, having received the blessing of the European Council – with the opposition of the prime ministers of Italy and Hungary, Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orban – now has to win that of the European Parliament. And it won’t be an easy game. The D-Day of the vote is July 18, in the first plenary of this legislature in Strasbourg. The presidency of the European Parliament will be voted on the 16th. The starting point remains what is called the ‘platform’ of popular, socialists and liberals. Calculator in hand, that’s 188 votes from the EPP; 136 from S&d and 75 from Renew. In total 399 out of 720. The absolute majority needed is 361. The 38 vote margin is not enough to face the test of the secret ballot with serenity. The outgoing Parliament closes with an ‘Ursula majority’ at 417 seats. And those who try to make predictions take into account a percentage of snipers of 10-15%: in absolute values, around fifty votes are at stake. At the EPP congress in Bucharest von der Leyen was appointed spitzenkandidat with a percentage of snipers of 18%. The French delegation of the republicans (six seats) and the Slovenian delegation of the former prime minister, Janez Jansa, (four seats) have already announced their vote against. Five years ago the German leader obtained approval with a margin of just nine votes, thanks among other things to the support of the delegation of the 5 Star Movement (14 seats then, 8 today) and the Polish Pis of former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, but now certainly against it (25 seats in 2019, now 20).

These are intense days of confrontation for von der Leyen. He is now daily in the corridors of Parliament: he has already met the presidencies of S & D and Renew. On July 4th he will participate in a meeting with all the group presidencies. He already has an appointment with the Greens on his agenda and will certainly speak with the Left group. “I will go to everyone who invites me,” he assured. In the last legislature he did not only speak with the Identity and Democracy group (which includes the League and the French National Rassemblement). The objective of the president who aspires to in her second term is “to build a large majority for a strong Europe” and to do so she aims to convince parliamentarians one by one. «I will discuss with individual MEPs and with national delegations, because the vote often takes place based on the country they belong to». So, to make a hypothesis, von der Leyen could deal with the delegation of the Brothers of Italy (24 deputies) and not with that of the Pis, even if both have their home in the conservative Ecr group.

In the last legislature they voted in line with the Ursula majority 80% of the time. However, the president of the EPP group, Manfred Weber (who is also president of the party), continues to accuse them of being “unreliable” because for example they voted against the reform of the Stability Pact and against the Pact for Migrations and ‘asylum. They reply that reliability is guaranteed with a majority entry. In any case, those dossiers were instead approved – albeit with some distinctions – by Fratelli d’Italia. A large part of the popular party would prefer to be able to count on the external support of the Brothers of Italy and part of the conservatives instead of welcoming the Greens into the Ursula majority because at that point the EPP would end up in the minority, especially when it comes to the issues of the Green deal : the majority extended to the Greens would have 453 seats of which ‘only’ 188 would be from the People’s Party. Neither of the two options is risk-free: the Greens will ask not to back down on climate policies and this could create friction with the EPP, while the ultra-conservatives with whom Meloni shares the group are a red line for socialists and liberals. To convince Meloni, von der Leyen could put on the table – completely informally so as not to open the door to requests from other countries – the offer of a vice presidency or an important commissioner in the next College team, in line with the role of Italy. Once confirmed, von der Leyen will have to officially start negotiations to form his new team. However, if von der Leyen did not overcome the Strasbourg wall, an unprecedented institutional crisis would arise. His candidacy would lapse and the leaders of the European Council would have to meet again within a month, in the middle of summer, to propose another candidate.