Models should be handled with care. The patterns, to be replicated and shaped based on specificities. And the lessons, to be capitalized for new strategies. THE ballots of the municipal elections, especially the match of Bari And Lecce, close the long and crucial spring-summer electoral interlude between the European and municipal elections with a double impact. The next stages are in autumn with Emilia Romagna and Umbria voting and then in 2025, a watershed year for the Puglia who will choose the new governor and regional councilors in October. From here on, for all the forces in the field, the Regionals will therefore be a bit of everything: great center of gravity of choices and moves, key to understanding agreements and disagreements.
To what extent and how will the verdicts of Bari and Lecce direct the destinies and future steps of the centre-left and centre-right in Puglia? Do they redesign political geography? In summary (extreme): encouraging signs and alarm bells for both coalitions. With one warning: I agree with the “models”, but be careful about their non-reproducibility. First of all, the macro data: the match between the provincial capitals in Puglia ends in a draw, the centre-left defends the fundamental stronghold of Bari (indulging in the famous refrain according to which «whoever governs Bari, wins at the Region»), the centre-right regains the palace in Lecce after seven years of opposition (vice versa, picking up the signal of the “changing wind”). Everything fits into the trend of the European elections: close distance between the two flagship parties, Fratelli d’Italia and Pd, and consensus monopolized by the polarizing leadership of Giorgia Meloni and Elly Schlein.
Chiaroscuro for everyone
Chiaroscuro for everyone, therefore. The center-left rides in Bari on the “Decaro model” applied to Vito Leccese and his “quiet force”, after the now former mayor imposed leadership beyond Puglia (with the almost 500 thousand, now famous, preferences at the European elections in the whole South): the people of Bari have undoubtedly chosen continuity and trademark, defusing poisons and controversies over the spring judicial storms. The point, however, is exactly that: can the “model” now be exported to the Region or to other cities? Yes and no: Decaro in the role of locomotive would be a guarantee for the Regionals, but the effect risks being diluted with other protagonists as front runners. It will be up to the new MEP to decide whether to try his hand first for the Region or whether to govern processes and choices from Brussels, perhaps already projected towards national stages, all obviously involving Michele Emiliano in the “sweet succession”. In the background we can also glimpse – alongside Decaro – other options, such as for example the councilors Alessandro Delli Noci (a civic member however fresh from the setback in Lecce) and Raffaele Piemontese (Pd). In any case, European and municipal elections have for the moment crystallized new power relations in the Apulian centre-left: the Democratic Party firmly at the top, pushed directly or indirectly by Decaro; the five stars are increasingly “lateral” (and almost irrelevant in the municipal elections of Bari and Lecce), and therefore with ambitions scaled down for future candidates from the “wide field”; Emiliano’s magmatic and varied civic leaders grappling with a complicated mid-life crisis, useful yes, but no longer essential or even in a position to undermine the Dems. In short: the alchemy in the center-left remains variable and the very broad alliance with Emiliano rediscovers the centrality of the Democratic Party. The governor, moreover, appeared more secluded in the electoral campaign, a “noble father” and no longer a centralizer of destinies. But he is unlikely to give up his role as king maker in view of the Regionals, and it remains to be seen how much he will want to impose his instructions.
Bari proved invaluable for the centre-left, but the errors made in Lecce must still make us reflect, with a view to 2025: not all “models” are the same, and the Salento slip-up is a worrying symptom. A necessary premise: the capital of Lecce is split into two halves, divided by just over 600 votes. But the hints of an invisible and yet profound fracture (whether justified or not) between the city and Carlo Salvemini had been there for a long time, coalition leaders and leaders were well aware of it, however they thought it was enough to protect the mayor with a sanitary cordon of good advice, messages of continuity and valid political sponsors to achieve the result. Not even the “Decaro effect”, summoned to the stage for the final push, was not enough to reverse the inertia in the runoff. In short: the alleged, or at least perceived as such, errors committed in Lecce had to be read promptly and remedied. And it is a lesson to be treasured also for what concerns and will concern the Region: after ten years of Emiliano and 20 of Puglia Spring which (besides the Decaro effect) sometimes shows the signs of fatigue and time, we need to quickly understand if and how to correct the shot.
Lights and shadows also for the center-right. In Bari there was the tacit awareness of starting at a large disadvantage from the first round, but the debacle still remains resounding. And it questions all the leaders of the coalition on political and communication strategies. Multiple factors influenced the defeat of the young and generous Fabio Romito: the late choice of the candidate, the feeling that still needs to be (re)built between territorial political levels and voters, the sometimes out-of-focus story of the city. In this case, no “model” reproduced with a successful outcome: the parade of ministers in large numbers did not give the expected shock, evidently the “Meloni scheme” only works if tailored to the leader herself. In both Bari and Lecce the centre-right has rediscovered the value of unity, at least electorally, and now it must be tested in the government (in Lecce) and opposition (in Bari) tests. In the Salento capital, the coalition guessed the recipe, infiltrating the weaknesses of its opponents, using the joker of an expert and beloved candidate (Adriana Poli Bortone) and probably intercepting the right message. A sign of recovery to be cultivated, but – here too – the formula, contexts and protagonists are perhaps too peculiar to be completely transferred elsewhere. Overall, where does the center-right start from then, towards the Regionals? First: the “clue” of the Salento victory. Second: the compactness of the coalition, to be made less “cold” and more amalgamated. Third: the push, however, from the government and what it can bring to the table. Fourth, as a footnote: it is urgent to clarify as soon as possible “who decides what” between FdI, Forza Italia and Lega, and between national and regional levels, and individual leaders and secretaries. In short: the internal balance of power entrusts the primacy to the Brothers of Italy, but it is not very clear who holds the reins of the Apulian coalition and with how much determination. 2025 will require timely and unequivocal assessments to attempt an assault on the Region: for the shortlist of candidates it will be necessary to draw not only from the ranks of a ruling class undergoing a slow turnover, but also from the jokers of civil society, for a radical paradigm shift. Another very long game begins for everyone. And the ball is already in the center.
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Read the full article at
Puglia Newspaper
