There is a part ofItaly which seriously risks losing an additional month of summer 2024, and is the Northern Italy. In fact, in these parts the flow of ocean currents could send several times cloudy pulses harbingers of precipitation generated by a marked atmospheric instability due to the contrast of extremely different temperatures from the regions just south of theApennines where instead the heat waves will follow one another.
It is currently very hot in the Southern Italy where the temperature exceeds 30°C in many locations. We were certainly used to hearing the other years like hot 40°C, even if these were then measured only in certain areas. But the point of the situation is that currently looking at mathematical forecasting models that go towards the very long term, the northern regions they will be a destination unstable air and above all temperatures that are often below average.
It would seem a summer with similarities to that of 2014when after an early start to the season with early heat in the first week of June, the weather conditions suddenly changed throughout Italybut above all on Northwhere rains and thunderstorms began with a much greater frequency than average.
Recall the weather of the past to know what the weather will be like in the future, however, it is only by way of comparison or example for the purpose of giving a general idea of what could happen. We won’t have a new 2014Why the time of the past is never repeated in the same form again. Therefore we will certainly have atmospheric conditions that may have similarities but not the same.
Will you say why we say that 2014 could be a reference year for this 2024? Above average rainfall is expected Northern Italy, and the sky are the mathematical forecast models that go beyond the first days of August. As for temperature, these are now steadily tracking towards high values, but we are no longer observing heat wave forecast extreme for the regions of Northern Italy, and this is already a significant sign. We see great heat instead towards Southern Italythe Sicily. In these parts, as has happened in recent days, very hot air coming from theAfrica will tend to take the path towards the Greece and the Middle Eastwhere unfortunately there will be further heat waves with truly very high temperatures.
There Sicily will be fully affected by these atmospheric events great heat. In these parts there is no hope of seeing the rain return any time soon. However, in a context of atmospheric instability towards theItaly exclude any storm surges moving towards Southern Italy, harbingers of strong but temporary thunderstorms. But to solve the problem of drought which especially afflicts the Sicily recurring rainfall is necessary, and certainly not very high temperatures.
Let’s go back to the northern regions, the ones that are expected to have the worst weather this summer. In other years we have called bad weather large heat waves long-lasting and persistent that have occurred, altering the summer climate in an incredible way. Summer has become for many of us a season that evokes a terrible feeling. While in the past we spent a lot of time outdoors, especially in the plains and valleys, the great heat waves make the days rather difficult, even believed in dreams where you can take advantage of an air conditioner.
Furthermore, many have changed the route of their holidays due to the heat waves, because many homes that are rented for tourist purposes do not have air conditioning. And then if you want to spend a relaxing holiday it is certainly not pleasant to undergo a sauna paid for at a high price. Thus many tourists from the central-northern regions ofEurope they decided not to comeMediterranean Europe during the summer season due to fear of the great heat. Me too’Italy he paid for it and will pay the consequences.
This period of cool, or relative cool, for the northern regions at least, should not make us believe that climate change does not exist, on the contrary, this is galloping. You will notice it in the coming months. It is also possible that after the very unstable summer season, an even dry autumn will follow, if not even a winter. However, we will probably have a phenomenon that is now recurring as we talk about: La Nina. But this should come in a while July and Augustand much later probably give its effects also in Italy, but these are not well definable. However, this is very different in many countries that are entering the world Pacific.
However, with this event, that is La Ninathe very serious warming of our planet will probably calm down, even if the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from the past and future ones will continue to warm our globe, and therefore also the mitigating effect in this case of La Nina will be muffled once again. It is to be hoped that La Nina does not last three years like last time, when it was probably a contributing cause of the very serious drought that occurred in Europe and in Italy, especially in the northern regions, where this historic event led to record water scarcity. Droughts like those that occurred until 2022 can be compared to others a few hundred years away.
