That it state of health of the Venetian economy sent signals weakeninghad already emerged from some individual declining indicators (export volumes, hours of redundancy payments requested, manufacturing production), but now the diagnosis is certified by the regional report of the Bank of Italy, presented yesterday in Venice by the head of the office Pier Luigi Ruggiero and the head of the Territorial Economic Research Division, Vanni Mengotto.
Which report, to the analysis of data and statistical findings, adds a prospective in-depth analysis that should not leave us calm: the theme ofdemographic winter enters fully into the evaluations on the future labor market and the economic growth of the region. With an aggravating circumstance, as far as Veneto is concerned: «We are unattractive to the younger generations – underlines Ruggiero – and the generational turnover is starting to fail. Also, this demographic deficit is not compensated by productivity growth”. All that Unlikeit must be said, of other European regions similar to Veneto, such as Lower Saxony or Flanders: here, faced with a demographic dividend in negative territory like ours, the productivity trend is largely comforting.
Less investment
For completeness of information, there is no shortage of positive elements. For example, the Venetian companies on average they knew maintain their marginality, with a parallel strengthening of capitalization, circumstances which allowed less exposure to the increase in interest rates. If we then look at the financial savings, companies even increased deposits in the comparison between March 2023 and the same month this year. Resources are set aside and if they invest lessas in all periods marked by great uncertainty: «From the survey we conducted – confirms Mengotto – it emerges that manufacturing entrepreneurs expect a consistent decline in investments. Moreover, if orders drop (manufacturing production fell by 2% in 2023 and continues to decline in the first quarter of ’24, ed.) it becomes more difficult to plan in the medium to long term.”
Exports declining
Probably the most painful data, for an area full of supplier-exporters like Veneto, comes from the box office “foreign trade». Mengotto again: «I volumes fell 3% in 2023 and to an even more significant extent in the first months of the year. The decline is strongest in the Euro area, with a very significant fall in exports to Germany”. The German market is the market by definition for many Veneto companies, so it is from here that the most stinging suffering comes from: thedecline in exports to Germanyin the first quarter of this year, exceeded the 10%: a double percentage compared to the minus sign recorded in other European markets. A look also at families: according to historical statistics from Bank of Italy, iPurchasing power has suffered a clear erosion, so much so that, from 2007 to today, the disposable income of Veneto consumer families has fallen by 4%. «And we must say – Mengotto comments – that in the rest of Europe it was not like this».
