If I were Giorgia Meloni I would worry about it. In the South, the only Italian constituency, the Democratic Party is in the lead in the electoral results. In Campania, not only the Democratic Party (with 22.2%) but also the M5S (with 20.8%) came ahead of the Brothers of Italy. In Naples the prime minister’s party takes a percentage (13.25%) which is half that of both the Democratic Party (26.67%) and the Cinquestelle (26.58%). And it is threatened in third place by Verdi and Sinistra, less than a percentage point away. I would add that in Campania the entire centre-right, despite the good performance of Forza Italia which here obtains more than the national average with 10.82%, reaches just 37%.
Pd and Cinquestelle alone are worth more. It will be said: but they are European. Furthermore, deserted by the electorate. In Campania only 44% of those entitled to vote voted. That is, almost nine points less than two years ago, when the elections were held (and already then there was a drop of 14 percentage points in turnout). But this observation cannot be enough to reassure the center-right leader about the probability that the votes missing today will arrive. The European elections are in fact a “pure” electoral consultation, so to speak. Only those who are informed and oriented now vote, and there are no, or much fewer, local factors such as candidacies, clientele, vote swapping, which often distort actual political preferences to the advantage of this or that party. Therefore the test, although limited by the abstention, is very probative from a political point of view. On the other hand, all analysts agree that the abstention punished Conte’s movement above all. It is therefore to be imagined that the turnout, even if it had been higher, would not have favored the centre-right.
Instead, I think that the vote from the South, and from Campania in particular, shows an opinion that is politically determined to demonstrate its opposition to the Meloni government. The main reason could be the differentiated autonomy project, which politically damages the majority more than it actually benefits the Northern regions. I want to say that the final effect will be modest for the purposes of the federalism claimed by Lombardy-Veneto, because the constraint of the Lep, Essential Performance Levels, would require an increase in public spending to truly apply the autonomy that the national State currently enjoys and even in the foreseeable future, it does not have the availability. However, the reform is enough to scare a South that has already seen the decline of citizen’s income and bonus policy, without seeing any alternatives, not even in terms of public investments. Enzo De Luca’s constant and aggressive polemic on this front demonstrates precisely that the opposition believes it has found the government’s exposed flank there. And that he will attack on that in the coming months and years, until he gets some electoral results from it.
Similarly, Elly Schlein’s electoral success in the South is strengthened by the fact that she has overtaken her pseudo-ally competitor Conte. In the most informed and informed public opinion, the Democratic Party is today considered a better and more effective opponent of the Five Star Movement in the South. Therefore, in the absence of the lever of cheerful public spending, it seems that Conte’s party does not have the strength to still play the game of the past, that is, to present itself as an alternative to the right and the Democratic Party at the same time. And if this no longer happens even in the South, imagine in the North, where the Cinquestelle have always been weaker. If this were true, the political strategy of Grillo’s heirs would have to be completely changed. Another factor which, added to the weakness of the centre-right in the South, demonstrates that the Southern vote today can make the difference. Which is the true potential game-changer of the Italian political equation.
