The decline in Bergamo exports in the first quarter of 2024 is not due to a loss of competitiveness of local businesses, but rather to a complex mix of reasons that mainly concern international geopoliticsthe weakness of the German economy, the protectionist choices of the United States and those linked to the green transition, which is essential but has an impact.
Entrepreneurs explain it this way the decline in sales by almost 6% between January and March compared to the same period in 2023, with leading provincial manufacturing sectors recording double-digit negative percentage changes, such as base metals (-13%) and textiles and clothing (-10%). The slowdown, for the third consecutive quarter, was also significant for the export of machinery and rubber and plastic materials (in both cases -7.8%), while it was more contained for electrical appliances (-4. 8%) and chemical products (-2.9%). Only means of transport (+1.6%) and food (+1.7%) have a positive sign.
On one side the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza they are affecting international trade, already slowed down by the routes to and from Asia that are alternatives to the Red Sea, where the Houthi rebels continue to give a hard time; on the other hand, Germany hints at a recovery that fails to have visible effects on Bergamo exports, so linked to the German market, where in the first quarter of 2024 they lost more than 8% on an annual basis. But The Inflation Reduction Act doesn’t help either of 370 billion dollars launched by the Biden administration in 2022 to push “made in America”: in the first quarter sales to the United States, which nevertheless remain the third destination market for manufacturing in Orobic, fell by 5.4% .
Silvio Dorati: «An adjustment expected»
Silvio Dorati, president of the Plastics and Rubber Group of Confindustria Bergamo
«The general situation of uncertainty, conflicts, tensions in the Middle East, the difficulty of Germany, as well as other countries in the world, create widespread instability which has led our sector not to perform as well as in the first part of 2023 – he admits Silvio Dorati, president of the Plastics and Rubber Group of Confindustria Bergamo -. The forecasts, however, are for a situation of substantial adjustment.”
For Alberto Paccanelli, outgoing president of Euratex, the European textile and clothing organisation, «we are not faced with a loss of competitiveness of companies, but with a global cooling of demand, which in our sector concerns in particular the high range, and which risks falling further, as usually happens, entering the hot months of the American elections”.
Agostino Piccinali: «Tax rules don’t help»
Agostino Piccinali, president of the Mechatronics Group of Confindustria Bergamo
Agostino Piccinali, president of the Mechatronics Group of Confindustria Bergamo, instead points the finger at «the Italian tax legislation, complicated and always provisional, which does not help companies: even when we import components there is always uncertainty about the customs ratewith the risk of incurring sanctions or having to face long disputes.”
Despite international tensions, according to Piccinali «we must not forget that the economy is cyclical, therefore after a phase of growth it is logical that a slowdown comes. China itself is starting to record a slowdown, while interest rates weigh heavily in Europe decided by the ECB, still high despite the recent cut of a quarter of a point.”
«No change is immediate – comments Mariella Giannattasio, president of the Chemicals Group of Confindustria Bergamo -. Only the next half-yearly reports will be able to tell us something more, but there are already some positive signs: the lowering of rates could give new impetus to businesses and Germany’s slow recovery could help Bergamo’s exports. But let’s not forget all the transformations underway, starting with the green one: to implement the necessary processes, companies must change while safeguarding jobs, time and huge investments are needed.”
