A (slight) sigh of relief among the Democrats on the banks of the Arno and some sulks, vice versa, in the center-right house. According to exit polls and instant polls released yesterday after 11pm, immediately after the polls closed, the centre-left mayoral candidate Sara Funaro, very loyal to the outgoing Dario Nardella, would be above the psychological threshold of 40%. By around 4 points according to the first exit of the Opinio Italia consortium, broadcast by Porta a Porta, by 2.5 according to the first Swg instant poll for La 7.
On the other hand, his main competitor for the seat of Palazzo Vecchio, the former director of the Uffizi Eike Schmidt, civic dress and support of the centre-right, would not have broken through, stopping at 32% (more or less the historic percentage that the opposition gets in the first tour in Florence) for Opinio and a little higher, at 34.5% according to Swg. Yet, benefiting from the fragmentation of votes on the left, on paper she can still battle the Democratic candidate and be confident in an (albeit difficult) turnaround in the second round in two weeks. The gap seems large, but much less than in the past (in 2019 Nardella trailed his rival Ubaldo Bocci by as much as 33 points, finishing 57 to 24). Funaro recovers his smile but does not go too far: “The data is positive: there is satisfaction but caution is needed”. Frosty Schmidt: “We work, the others comment.”
The findings released yesterday – today the real data, counting starting at 2pm, still differ quite a bit from the polls of the last few weeks which saw a narrower gap between the two main competitors for the Palazzo Vecchio seat but still outline a picture that remains rather uncertain about the name of the future tenant of the Sala Clemente VII of Palazzo Vecchio.
The specific weight of the third wheel of the race, Stefania Saccardi, launched by Matteo Renzi with Italia Viva, needs to be understood. If the results of the first Porta a Porta surveys turn out to be close to the real data (the estimate is 7%) it would confirm that the PD is not so relevant in a probable second round. If, on the other hand, he were to reach double figures (SWG’s range is between 8.5% and 12.5%) his could be a key role. However, it is worth noting what seems to be the real surprise, namely the Democratic Florence of Cecilia Del Re, councilor ousted by the Nardella council for having said in recent months that she was in favor of the passage of the tram to the Duomo and therefore, having escaped among the poisons, from the Party Democratic.
As regards the European elections, however, according to the 500 sections registered throughout the province of Florence out of 957, Fratelli d’Italia would reach percentages never seen before with 23% of the preferences; but in the centre-right second place is going to Forza Italia and Lega, both tied on 4%. As for the centre-left, the Democratic Party holds with its 36% but in 2019 it reached 42%, while the Greens and the Italian Left would have totaled a flattering 10%. What immediately catches the eye is the collapse of the M5S, in the province of Florence, from 11.21% in 2019 to 7.71%. Finally, United States of Europe (+Europa and Italia Viva) reaches 6.33% while Azione di Carlo Calenda would not go beyond 3%.
