Where the greatest variations are recorded
Almost 75 percent of families benefit from an increase in disposable income of more than 1 percent. The greatest variations (up to 2.4 percent, on average) are recorded in two groups of families: one in correspondence with the second tenth of the distribution and the other between the sixth and seventh tenth of the distribution. In the first, households with a single medium-low income worker prevail, in the second those with two workers of the same type. The interventions generate a slight reduction in the inequality of equivalent disposable incomes (the Gini index decreases by 0.3 percentage points).
The effective marginal rate (Ame) – defined as the change in total income taxes, social contributions and monetary transfers that is associated with a unit increase in labor income – decreases for almost all gross income classes from Work. However, as income increases, a first peak is observed near the threshold of 25,000 euros (beyond which the contribution relief is reduced by one percentage point), a second, more marked, around 35,000 euros (beyond which the discount is canceled out). ) and finally a third peak at 55,000 euros (corresponding to a taxable income tax base of approximately 50,000 euros, beyond which a reduction in deductions is foreseen).
2% of taxpayers under the 35,000 euro threshold
Approximately 2 percent of taxpayers are immediately below the threshold of 35,000 euros and are subject to an Ame higher than 100 percent: in the case of even a modest increase in income from work, these individuals would entirely lose the relief on contributions, thus suffering a reduction in disposable income. An alternative calibration of the measurements could smooth out the irregularities in the Ame profile.
For example, with unchanged costs for public finances, this would happen with a gradual reduction of the contribution relief for incomes from 30,000 to 35,000 euros and its simultaneous extension up to a threshold of 39,000 euros. Compared to the regime for the current year, on the other hand, the change would be slightly regressive.
To maintain the solutions introduced in 2024 in the coming years, coverage must be found
The maintenance for the years to come of the interventions introduced for 2024, concludes Bank of Italy, would require the identification of adequate, certain and permanent coverage, to avoid negative effects on the public finances, also taking into consideration the consequences of the design of the measures on ‘job offer. If confirmed, the relief on contributions would structurally loosen the link at an aggregate level between the income and expenditure of the pension system.
