Bad news for durum wheat production which in 2024 will fall below 3.5 million tonnes, could even be remembered as the lowest in the last 10 years. The main reason? There reduction of cultivated areascaused by unfair competition from foreign products together with Drought which hit the regions of Southern Italy. The estimates, made one month after threshing, come from Coldiretti and Cai – Agricultural Consortiums of Italy. Here are all the numbers.
Analysis and causes
The analysis in question records a reduction for durum wheat of 11% compared to 2023, a decrease of less than 1.2 million hectares. In the Center and South, the territory from which approximately 90% of the national harvest comes, this figure reached 17%. Prices have also fallen due to unfair competition abroad. In fact, last year approximately 900 million kilos of Russian and Turkish wheat arrived, these are numbers that come from the analysis of the Divulga Study Center and which have never been recorded in Italy. The product exceeded one billion kilos and had a significant impact on domestic grain prices. It is a cereal treated before harvesting with glyphosate, banned in Italy. In addition to foreign competition, there are also the effects of the climate with the drought which has decreased the production of durum wheat in Puglia with decreases of between 20 and 30%, while in some areas of Sicily there has even been a decrease of 70%. Finally, an increase of 1.4% was recorded for the areas cultivated with soft wheat, which stand at just over 600 thousand hectares with an estimated production of around 3 million tonnes.
Supply chain contracts
To try to stem the fluctuations in market prices and protect farmers, Consorzi Agrari d’Italia has started supply chain contracts and wheat futures which represent 12 different productions, of which 4 concern wheat. The objective is to enhance Italian production. Considering the total of the products collected from the Italian Agricultural Consortiums wheat it represents over 50% of the volume and is therefore the first product, overall it is 400 thousand tons of wheat of which 25% is included in the supply chain contracts. In this regard, Gianluca Lelli, CEO of Cai, stated: “In the last two years this strategy has paid off and despite the decline in production on a national scale, Cai has recorded a +2% on the total volume withdrawn, with an increase due precisely to the increase in the Senatore Cappelli durum wheat supply chains. A sign that we are working well on indigenous supply chains, enhancing the work of the farmer and national productions. Precisely thanks to the supply chain agreements, Cai is able to guarantee a premium to the farmer which can reach up to 8% more than the market price”. Lelli then specified that “the farmer is one of the few entrepreneurs who, when he begins his production, does not know what the price of his product will be on the market. Cai tries to undermine this logic – unique in Italy – by establishing a priori what the price of collecting the product at the end of the campaign will be and thus guaranteeing the farmer a sales price on which he can calibrate his expectations and investments even with 2 years in advance and with a guaranteed minimum”.
Research
Cai then gave broad scope to the researchLelli stated in this regard: “Today we are in Idice in one of the SIS offices, an excellence in the seed sector and a leader in Italy and in the world in terms of research and experimentation. A possible answer to the problem of durum wheat production has emerged precisely from the test fields which are ending in recent days: as we have seen, the drought in southern Italy has threatened the quantities produced to the point that a production loss of 20% is estimated compared to the average“.
The research studied by Sis and called “Superbo”, ready to be launched next season, has given positive results, proving resistant to water stress and thus responding to one of the greatest critical issues caused by climate change.
