The Data Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released the April 2024 Consumer Expectations Survey. According to the report, expectations about price growth for goods and services in the economy have increased in the short to medium term. Furthermore, house price expectations reached the highest values since July 2022. In addition to the price increase, respondents also estimate an increase in expenses.
Below are the details of the Fed report:
- Inflation forecast for the next 12 months: 3.3% y/y compared to 3.0% y/y in March
- Inflation forecast for the next 3 years: 2.8% y/y compared to 2.9% y/y in March
- Inflation forecast for the next 5 years: 2.8% y/y compared to 2.6% y/y in March
- Gas price expectations rose to 4.8% from 4.5% y/y in March
- Food price expectations rose to 5.3% from 5.1% y/y in March
- Medical care price expectations increased to 8.7% from 8.1% y/y in March
- Education price expectations rose to 9.0% from 7.5% y/y in March
- Rental expectations rose to 9.1% from 8.7% y/y in March
- Average one-year earnings growth fell 0.1 percentage point to 2.7% y/y
- The average perceived probability of finding a job if one loses their current one fell for the fourth consecutive month to 50.9% from 51.2% in March
- Expected median household income growth fell 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%
- The average perceived probability of finding work if one loses their current job fell for the fourth consecutive month to 50.9% from 51.2% in March
- Expected median household income growth fell 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%.
In the medium term, Americans are concerned about high prices combined with worse wage growth. However, the fear of possible layoffs remains low and in April it even dropped to 15% (probability of job loss). The probability of voluntary layoffs has also decreased, but remains above the value of involuntary layoffs, which may indicate that the United States is still experiencing a workers’ market.
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