A violent and very large cyclone will hit Europe in the next few days, generating the risk of dangerous floods in Spain and France. Italy is also at risk of extreme phenomena. Starting this evening and then tomorrow, Friday 28 June, severe bad weather will hit several European states but meteorologists’ attention is already focused on Saturday June 29th, a day that will be characterized by torrential rain and hail. We at We have already raised the alarm at MeteoWeb and he did the same thing Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment), which gives an idea of the seriousness of the situation that will develop.
Estofex has issued a warning of level 2 for the France oriental, the Germania central-western, Swiss e Italia northwestern mainly for destructive gusts of wind e large or very large hail.
And level 1 was issued for northern Spain, France, Belgium and northern Germany mainly due to violent wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.
And level 1 It was issued for Finland and Northern Russia mainly due to strong wind gusts and tornadoes.
And level 1 was issued for the Caucasus mainly for large hail.
France, Germany, Switzerland, North-West Italy
Estofex warns that a wave of severe regional weather is likely, especially in the area falling under Level 2. A sharp shortwave trough is forecast to break away from northeastern Spain on Saturday morning and move across southern France and into Germany, weakening and deamplifying. Ahead of the shortwave, a wavy frontal boundary will extend from France into Germany and southern Poland. As the trough crosses the region, the frontal system will move northeastward, crossing the region by Sunday morning.
Within the warm sector, a column of strong mid-tropospheric lapse rates will develop across the Alps and cover eastern France, Switzerland and southwestern Germany. With low-level humidity locally exceeding 14g/kg, large CAPE profiles with MLCAPE values between 2 and 4.5 kJ/kg are expected. Strong vertical wind shear will superimpose the high CAPE, with bulk shear at 0-6km ranging from 20 to 30m/s and wind shear at 0-3km ranging from 15 to 25m/s.
In this environment – Estofex reports – they are probable intense and well-organized stormsamong which supercelle e bow echoeswith threats of very large hail and destructive gusts of wind. Storm coverage will increase rapidly around 5 pm (Italian time). Given the strong forcing, widespread storms are likely, especially in a band from eastern France through western Switzerland to western Germany. Here, a Level 3 may be required in the next Estofex forecast for a band of severe to extremely severe wind gusts. A more isolated convective mode will be possible at Northern Italywhich will be further away from the strongest lift, says Estofex, which will announce more details in subsequent bulletins to be issued.
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