Mark Rutte, the new Secretary of NATO: the four tests and what changes for the Alliance

At the «Ukraine Peace Summit» last weekend, Mark Rutte gave one of the harshest speeches towards Vladimir Putin. It could be said that this was perhaps his last international outing as head of the Dutch government the first as Secretary General of NATO.

The prediction is that the changing of the guard at the top of the Alliance proceeds according to the pre-established times: Rutte’s appointment should be formalised at the summit to be held in Washington from 9 to 11 July. The Dutch prime minister, however, should take over from Jens Stoltenberg on October 2.

AND a choice in the name of continuity. The Norwegian Stoltenberg, 65, and the Dutch Rutte, 57, come from different, but not incompatible, political traditions. The former was for a long time, as well as prime minister in Oslo, leader of the Labor Party; the second is one of the most prominent exponents of the liberal democratic area in the European Union. Both, however, have always considered the axis with the United States is essential.
During the war in Ukraine, they found themselves on the same side: both supporters of maximum support for Volodymyr Zelensky and both deeply skeptical about the possibility of a real negotiation with Moscow.

Rutte will be called upon to manage the scenario that will take shape in the coming weeks. The Washington summit should confirm an even more central role for NATO. Stoltenberg proposed the establishment of a long-term financing fund for Ukraine. The goal is ensure a constant flow of resources to Kiev, regardless of the color of the governments that will take office in the various capitals. And the first thought goes, naturally, to possible return of Donald Trump at the White House. However, it will be up to Rutte urge countries to live up to their commitmentby regularly paying the required contributions. It is a task that seems perfect for the Dutch prime minister, always one of the fiercest penalty takers in budget matters, both at home and at European level, as many Italian governments have had the opportunity to experience.

The other point, equally complicated, will be the relationship with Zelensky. The leadership group and a large part of the Ukrainian public ask to start the project as soon as possible path to joining the Atlantic Alliance. But it is not certain that the meeting in Washington will end with a precise invitation to Kiev in terms of manner and time. In that case, Rutte will be called upon to temper Zelensky’s expectations and its most committed sponsors: Poles and Baltics, above all.

And again: third step. The Americans decided to abandon the Ramstein format, the contact group between over 50 countries supporting Ukraine, and to concentrate the coordination of military aid in the NATO command in Brussels. This means that the influence of the Secretary General will also increase in this way. Rutte, in fact, should take on that supervisory role carried out thus far by the American Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. It is also an important change on a political level. The new Secretary will inherit an organization that will oppose Putin head-on: nothing better for Rutte.

Some embarrassment, however, could arise on the fourth dossier: the relationship with China. The head of the Dutch government visited Beijing on March 27, consolidating what has been defined «a solid pragmatic understanding». That is, growing trade and investment. For some time, however, the United States is pushing NATO to include the country led by Xi Jinping among its “strategic adversaries”.. And it is easy to predict that relations between the Atlantic Alliance and China are destined to worsen in the coming months. It won’t be easy for Rutte to smooth over this opposition either.