France: Le Pen prepares to overtake, the socialist left is reborn
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
PARIS – The last hours of the campaign were dominated by the celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, by the pro-European speeches of Emmanuel Macron and by declarations of support for Ukraine against the aggression and totalitarianism of Putin’s Russia. We will see if this will have consequences on a vote which, according to polls, could largely reward the Rassemblement national of Marine Le Pen and the leaders Jordan Bardella, once openly linked to Moscow and certainly not Kiev’s most enthusiastic allies now. Bardella has always remained in the lead with voting intentions above 30 percent, almost double compared to the candidate from the Macronist camp, Valerie Hayerwhich has never managed to impose its personality: the continuous interventions of the prime minister Gabriel Attal at his side they seemed to be evidence of mistrust, bordering on sexism. But the great political news of these months, also in perspective, has been the rebirth of a social democratic left with the success of Raphaël Glucksmann’s candidacy. The socialist exponent competes for second place with Hayer and, with his convinced Europeanism, could win votes from those disappointed with Macron because he is now judged to be too right-wing, and from those disappointed with Jean-Luc Mélenchon because it’s too left-wing.
Stefano Montefiori
Germany: the numbers and the future of Scholz with the AfD unknown
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
BERLIN – The question, in Germany, is simple: how successful will the chancellor be Olaf Scholz with her Spd to contain the damage? That is, how much will a modest but acceptable result allow him to continue with the traffic light government and set up phase 2 of his mandate? Or how soon Germany will see the return of the Christian Democrats? It will depend on the numbers. Suffice it to say that in the latest polls, the Cdu/Csu (formerly Merkel) in recent months it has almost doubled Scholz’s SPD: 30% for the former against a fluctuating 16% for the chancellor’s party. However, we need to see the final results: should the SPD approach 20% or even just 18%, Scholz will be able to say that he has recovered: 5 years ago the SPD reached the lowest point in its history with 15.8%. It doesn’t take much to do better. The CDU, however, will claim victory in any case: rising to 30% (from the modest 22% 5 years ago) will confirm it as a key party in Europe. Then, there is the far right of the AfD. Despite the scandals, it is close to 15%: strong nationalism, with extremist points, has now taken root in Germany too. There is still the possibility that the AfD establishes itself as the second party, above the SPD and the Greens (in decline). If so, it would be a disaster for Scholz and the zero hour of German politics.
Mara Gergolet
Spain: the PP is winning in the polls but the PSOE is hopeful
On Sunday, 37.5 million Spaniards will be called to elect their 61 representatives to the European Parliament. But the election campaign was dominated by national politics. Almost all polls predict a victory for the PP with 24 seats, 11 more than in 2019, thanks to the annexation of liberals of Ciudadanos. The Psoe, instead, it would lose 2%, falling to 30% but would maintain the same 20 seats as 5 years ago. There right of Vox it should go from fifth to third force in the country with 9.7% and 6 seats, double the current ones. Sumar it would stand at 5.9% ahead of Podemos. Sanchez look at the CIS poll which gives the socialists between 31.6% and 33.2%, ahead of the PP (28.3%-30.5%), Vox third (9.9%-11%).
Monica Ricci Sargentini
Poland: the head-to-head between two visions of the institutions
Safety. It is the word that dominated the Polish election campaign. And it’s not surprising, given that the country borders Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The two main camps promise continued support for Ukraine. For the rest, the center-left of «Civic platform» (Po)led by the prime minister Donald Tuskand the right of «Law and Justice» (Pis) they have two opposing ideas of community institutions: the first pro-European (Tusk was president of the European Council), the second eurosceptic (the Pis was sanctioned by the EU for its illiberal laws). In 2019 «Law and Justice» won by a margin; this year, the polls agree: it will be neck and neck.
Samuele Finetti
Hungary: the challenge to Orbán from a defector courted by the EPP
To weaken the party’s race towards Brussels Viktor Orbánthe nationalist saboteur of the EU, there is a former collaborator of his who has turned his back on him, Peter Magyar. His new party, Tisza, sails in the polls above 25% and 6 seats, winning consensus from Fidesz which would not exceed 50% (53% in 2019) and 10 seats, two less than 5 years ago. In order not to lose ground, the head of the Budapest government until the eve of the vote – Sunday in Hungary – raised the fear of Putin’s revenge and nuclear power (“We must not provoke Russia”. Every Western initiative will get a counter-initiative» ). Tisza has a place in the popular party, while Orbán aims to ferry Fidesz towards the sovereignists.
Alessandra Muglia
