The first Western F16 fighter jets may arrive in Ukraine only in a month. And it could be too late as there is a very dangerous Russian advance across the country and especially in Kharkiv. Some military analysts glimpse a paradox: better to supply the Kiev army with Soviet-era weapons and fighters than wait in vain for Western planes sophisticated and cutting-edge but which will arrive late.
The situation on the field
Russia has so far seized up to 47 square miles of Ukrainian territory in just two days, representing “the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began,” according to the Associated Press. In Kharkiv there is a really complicated situation.
Ukrainian pilots, who for most of the more than two-year war flew Soviet-era MiG aircraft, recently finished training on US-made jets expecting to receive deliveries from Western allies including Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium.
But these fighters risk not arriving in time and therefore relying on the F-16s to counter the Russian air forces could be a strategic mistake, comments Newsweek.
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William Reno, professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, said the delivery of the jets was unlikely to occur at the “optimal time.” «There was an optimal time for tanks… They were used when they arrived in 2023, but at that point they began to encounter drone attacks that exploited vulnerabilities in their armor and therefore limited their usefulness.” Therefore, simply sending weapons is not enough but we must be sure to send them at the right time.
The hypothesis of returning to the Mig
«The F-16s are in a similar situation, Reno added to Newsweek. “The duration of the decision-making, training and handover process gave Russian forces time to adapt air defenses, particularly when both sides stabilized in defensive positions.” Reno went on to suggest that Ukraine should «consider making an offer to the Taliban for all the Soviet-era equipment we supplied to the Afghan army“, arguing that quickly receiving older, cheaper aircraft could achieve “better results on the battlefield.”
Guy McCardle, editor-in-chief of the military newspaper SOFREP, made similar remarks, telling Newsweek that Augmenting Ukraine’s “ongoing operations and defensive measures” with MiG aircraft would have been a better strategy as “the best weapon you have to get the job done is what you currently have at hand.”
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«Better one MiG now than two Western fighters tomorrow»
«A MiG in the sky is worth two F-16s on the road, for the Ukrainians” McCardle said. «The F-16 is a great aircraft and could benefit the Ukrainian commitment in the long term, but if I were a Ukrainian general, I would prefer the MiGs on hand as soon as possible. Why? MiGs can be deployed immediately, providing an urgent boost to Ukraine’s air capabilities.”
“Ukrainian pilots are already familiar with MiG aircraft, which reduces the need for extensive retraining,” he continued. «MiGs would allow easier integration with Ukraine’s existing fleet of aircraft and logistics systems, which are already prepared for Soviet-era aircraft. The Ukrainians need immediate air support.”
Ukraine has yet to receive the promised Western fighters and, meanwhile, Moscow has vowed to treat the F-16s as a “nuclear-capable” threat whenever they are received by Ukraine, with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs saying warned last week that the plane would be considered an “intentional provocation.”
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