Ukrainian commanders and analysts agree: the last bastion of the Eastern Front is about to fall. “It’s just a matter of time”. The brutal scorched earth tactic, always dear to Moscow’s armies, proves effective. And the propagandists rejoice.
Chasiv Yar
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The Russian avant-garde is upon us. Which no longer exist, like the rest of the city. Chasiv Yar it is reduced to a pile of rubble. Very precious to the invader. Which once the Ukrainian stronghold has been conquered, it will be able to immediately spread throughout the not yet occupied Donbass. And then move troops to the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia fronts. Perhaps, also focus on Odessa. And, why not, about Kyiv. The picture is bleak, from the defenders’ point of view. Like never before in these more than two years of war. They frankly admit it themselves. And the military analysts interviewed by have noted this Fanpage.it.
The image that horribly illustrates how effective the moment that Ukraine is experiencing under Russian aggression it is precisely the apocalyptic one of the smoking ruins of the city where the leak is opening. It is the result of the “scorched earth” tactic, which has always been dear to the armies of Moscow and its surroundings.
The scorched earth tactic
The method has been used since ancient times in those parts. The Scythians, who populated today’s regions of southern Russia and Ukraine, used it against the Persians of Darius the Great. Throughout history, it has been used successfully to thwart invasions, particularly in Russia against the Swedes, French and Germans. The tactic has become a characteristic of Russian warfare, and has also been put into practice by Moscow offensively. In various conflicts.
Ukraine, Russians bomb buildings in Kharkiv and warn: “Risk of direct escalation with Europe”
The most striking examples, in Germany during the Second World War and in Syria in recent years. Then, to Ukraine. Despite international conventions that protect civilians, the scorched earth tactic, which is deadly for civilians, has been implemented in a constant and ruthless manner.
“What we saw in Khasiv Yar is simply the Russian armed forces’ favorite way to conquer a city,” he explains to Fanpage.it military analyst Ian Matveev. “It is a barbaric and rather laborious method: it turns a city or town into ruins so that the defenders can no longer maneuver or maintain their positions. It is above all a question of depriving the enemy of positions on the upper floors of houses”, notes the Russian expert. “And to avoid attacking buildings separately. House-to-house fighting is risky. By doing scorched earth, combat at different height levels is reduced to one level: that of the ground. Having air supremacy and having more ammunition, the Russian army prefers to demolish cities and then capture the ruins.”
And so it happened in Aleppo in Syria, and in Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdeevka after the invasion of Ukraine. Now it’s Chasiv Yar’s turn. Its strategic value is crucial. The city is no longer there, but the hill on which it once stood remains. A natural fortress protected by a canal. The last bastion. Controlling him will allow the Russians to attack wherever they want.
“Khasiv Yar is a position that covers both Konstantinovka and the road to Kramatorsk,” says analyst Matveev. “The Russian army will have the opportunity to advance in any direction, because there are no other obstacles. And any attack can be covered by fire from the positions on the hill.” This means that the razed city is the key to getting to the big cities of the Donetsk region not yet in the hands of Moscow.
The last stronghold
That Chasiv Yar will fall is now a certainty. The number two of Kyiv’s military intelligence Vadim Skibitsky also admitted this in an interview with Oliver Carrol ofEconomist. “Not today or tomorrow: it all depends on how many supplies we can send online. But it will fall, as Avdeevka fell.” According to Skibitsky, the situation is currently the most difficult since the first days of the invasion.
The general believes that Russia will give priority to the “liberation” of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. A Russian directive has been issued to capture that territory by May 9, the general claims. It is the day on which Putin’s Russia celebrates the victory over Nazism in the Second World War, continually equated by the Kremlin’s surreal propaganda with the “special military operation” in Ukraine. If it is not done in time – Skibitsky toldEconomist —, the objective will however have to be achieved before Putin’s visit to Beijing, scheduled for mid-May. The success of this effort will determine Russia’s next moves. “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. The Russians knew very well that April and May would be critical months for us.”
If Putin succeeds in his immediate aim in Donbass, his commands will be able to move forces to other fronts. Kharkiv is tipped by many observers as the next target. But the Zaporizhzhya sector is also critical. Ian Matveev is monitoring the situation in the Staromaiorske-Urozhaine area, south of Velyka Novosilka. “Russian aviation frequently bombs the region, suggesting potential preparations for active operations,” according to the military analyst.
“Recent attacks have led to the capture of a small area by Russian forces, with the Ukrainians showing a confident defense. Velyka Novosilka, which serves as a logistics hub, could be a target.” Metveev speculates that Russian troops could replicate the 2023 Ukrainian maneuvers, moving from village to village towards the important N15 transverse highway. “Expectations are for an intensification of Russian activity in the area in the coming months.” However, times for the Ukrainians are becoming very tight. The arrival of new American weapons could partly strengthen their defense. However, many observers say that it is difficult to guarantee a rebalancing of forces.
Boots on the ground
In the case of a Ukrainian rout, the sending of NATO troops to the ground once again evoked by French President Emmanuel Macron could become a realistic hypothesis. If nothing else to protect Odessa and the capital itself. This could make sense if a NATO “cordon” was enough to convince Putin to negotiate to avoid World War III. However, its propagandists – in particular the head of the largest state publishing group Dmitry Kiselov – while rejoicing over recent successes, continue to repeat on TV that direct intervention by Paris or other Western countries would immediately lead to a nuclear conflict.
“I think Macron will never send his Foreign Legion,” commits Ian Matveev. “It is impossible to predict how Putin would react. The only conceivable is a very limited intervention around particularly important objectives.” From a strictly military point of view, however, “the arrival of limited contingents of foreign troops, whether one thousand or ten thousand soldiers, would be of little significance on a front that already sees almost a million soldiers in action”. Of course, the meaning would be above all political. But there is no certainty of achieving the desired political objectives. And, even if we are aware that the Kremlin’s nuclear narrative is cheap propaganda, the risk remains too high.
And as the atomic threat rings out again from Moscow, the United States claims that Russia is using chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops: chloropicrin, in particular. The Kremlin indignantly denies it. Certainly for its armed forces it is a familiar substance: “Chloropicrin was used in the Soviet army as a training gas to simulate chemical attacks,” recalls Matveev. “It is plausible that there are stocks of that substance in Russian military warehouses.”
In modest concentrations, chloropicrin is more of a tear gas than a lethal gas. “Launching small charges from drones could temporarily put an enemy unit out of action.” It would be a serious violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party.” Washington must now prove its accusations.
