Russia advances and will continue to make “significant tactical progress” in the war against Ukraine. Kiev, which awaits the arrival of weapons guaranteed by the US, will be able to think about “limited operations of ccounteroffensive in late 2024 or early 2025“. It is the Institute for the study of war that outlines the short and medium term scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia. The US think tank analyzes the possible developments of the conflict on the basis of the daily monitoring of operations.
The United States has just formalized the shipment of two different weapons packages to Kiev. In addition to the 61 billion dollar supply just approved by Congress, there is also a 6 billion one that includes Patriot systems in particular. Washington’s aid, however, is unlikely to change the balance on the ground in the short term.
Moscow pushes and Kiev suffers
For months, Russia has been constantly pressing and forcing Ukraine to defend itself along the eastern front, where the difference in terms of resources and men has made itself felt significantly. General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, in the last few hours has described an alarming picture for Kiev: “We are in difficulty”, he essentially says. Analysts and experts do not rule out a new massive Russian offensive between the end of spring and the beginning of summer, with the spotlight in particular on the Kharkhiv region, which Vladimir Putin has repeatedly indicated a possible ‘buffer zone’ to guarantee greater security to the territories that Russia controls.
“Russian forces will likely gain significant tactical advantages in the coming weeks as Ukraine awaits the arrival of U.S. security assistance at the front, but they are unlikely to be able to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses,” the ISW said. “The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian forces to address current shortages and counter ongoing Russian offensive operations. Moscow’s forces, meanwhile, appear to be intensifying efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses and gain ground before the arrival” of US weapons.
According to the ISW, “Russian forces have the opportunity to gain significant tactical advantages in the Avdiivka area and to pursue a significant objective with the capture of Chasiv Yar”, an important logistical hub in the east. “It is unlikely, however, that these efforts will transform into an operationally significant penetration in the short term” and “the collapse of the Ukrainian defensive line in the Donetsk oblast” appears out of the question.
What Russia’s offensive will be like
The Institute believes that Kiev’s “well-equipped troops will likely be able to prevent significant Russian advances” during the summer, according to a script already seen in the past. “It is unlikely – observes the think tank – that Russian forces will conduct a significantly larger and more intense offensive operation this summer than the previous one”. Russia, on the other hand, also has to deal with shortages and gaps: “The army’s preparedness has not improved since 2022. The army faces limitations on the amount of modern and effective equipment it can and will have in able to deploy to Ukraine. And the overall effectiveness of formations and units continues to decline.” Moscow, however, can count on “quantitative advantages” in terms of resources and men: “The Russian military is accepting losses that Ukrainian forces could not sustain.”
There are elements to predict, in broad terms, where Russia will attack. “It appears that the Russian military command is learning from past planning mistakes and will likely conduct a summer offensive operation to overwhelm Ukrainian forces on a wider front line in eastern Ukraine,” the ISW notes. The strategy of recent weeks is characterized by the “massive use of glide bombs”, with the implementation of “safer” airstrikes from more distant positions.
When will he be able to attack Ukraine
The decisive weight of the new weapons that Ukraine has already begun to receive from the United States is evident. Since the beginning of April, Kiev has had Atamcs missiles available that can hit targets up to 300 km away. This allows Ukrainian forces to affect Russian logistics and the plans of Moscow, which hits cities and infrastructure with missiles and drones almost daily. With the arrival of the Patriots in particular, Kiev will be able to increase the quality of its air defense.
Furthermore, the effects of the law recently signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky will be felt, which aims to increase the number of soldiers available to the armed forces. With the enlistment of thousands of men, particularly in the 25-26 year age group, the departments at the front will be shored up.
There are elements, therefore, to hypothesize a more aggressive approach by Ukraine in the coming months. Not a ‘general counteroffensive’, like the one that did not produce the desired results in 2023, but a series of complex operations. “It is very likely that Ukraine will stabilize the front line in the coming months and may be able to start limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025“, says the ISW.
