Antony Blinken’s Chinese mission began in Shanghai. On other occasions it would have been a simple step towards Beijing, the scene of the political talks that will take place on Friday. But Shanghai is the financial capital of the People’s Republic and among the pressures that the US Secretary of State will put on the table there is the threat of sanctions against Chinese banks involved in circumventing the embargo on military supplies to Russia.
Blinken defines the journey that began today «intensive face-to-face diplomacy.” The intensity of his demands is remarkable. Four main dossiers:
1) He publicly denounced Putin’s support for war with “dual use” technology, civil and military sold in large quantities by Chinese companies.
2) Loud voice and threat of duties also against the invasion of below-cost Chinese products which put American (and European) industry out of business in innovative sectors such as electric cars.
3) Faced with Xi Jinping’s aggression in the South China Sea, now directed against the Philippines, the Pentagon has deployed 11 thousand soldiers in joint maneuvers with the Philippinesunderway these days.
4) Of course there is always there defense of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait: the foreign aid package just passed by Congress in Washington contains 8 billion dollars for the island.
Explosive questions. The billions in arms to the Taiwanese “create a dangerous situation, increase the risk of conflict”, Beijing immediately reacted. But in reality, many of the American supplies for the army of the democratic island are years behind schedule, because the priority now is to support Ukraine.
Xi Jinping understands that Joe Biden is on the election campaign and must appear firm in front of American public opinion. Thus, today the Beijing Foreign Ministry also noted that “relations have finally stopped deteriorating and are following a trend of stabilization.” The calculation is that the United States, busy in Ukraine and the Middle East, cannot afford to support a third front in Asia, either military or economic. Perhaps it will be enough for Blinken to demonstrate a certain verbal harshness towards his Chinese adversaries on behalf of his president (the old teaching of Theodore Roosevelt: «Speak softly and carry a big stick, you will go far»).
Blinken will have a relaxing start today in Shanghai: meetings with university students and entrepreneurs based in the megalopolis, he will also go to a basketball match. Popular and low-cost diplomacy, but still unthinkable a year ago, when the two superpowers were still collecting the heavy political debris of the Chinese spy balloon shot down in the skies of America.
The American envoy’s objective is therefore to show firmness for prevent Xi from feeling authorized to play too dirty with aid to Putin, free to tighten the siege around Taiwan and perhaps attempt coups against the Philippines on the disputed islands in the South China Sea. He will discuss it when he arrives in Beijing with Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister.
Wang Yi also has claims. Taiwan remains the “red line”. THEThe 8 billion dollar defense package for the democratic island “sends the wrong signal” to the Taipei government, inciting it to secede, Beijing says. But the Chinese know that Biden only wants calm in the Strait and therefore they have plenty of time to ponder their next moves. Meanwhile, everyone is waiting for the inauguration speech of the new Taiwanese president William Lai Ching-te on May 20th. There will also be protests (not unjustified) over the American order to the Chinese ByteDance to cede control of TikTok in America: but this game will also be long, because it will take at least nine months to reach a decision and the American courts are autonomous from the Administration politics.
In this delicate phase, Xi Jinping is above all interested in avoiding new US duties on Chinese exports, which offloads excess production to the West. He is also worried about possible sanctions against financial institutions for the Russian dossier. But this will not prevent him from receiving his friend Putin in the Forbidden City for the umpteenth time: the tsar’s visit is being prepared for May.
Sure that relations have stabilized (on a backdrop of controllable conflict), the Chinese, in order not to remain only on the defensive, have announced five of their objectives. 1) Establish the right perception. 2) Strengthen the dialogue. 3) Manage differences. 4) Promote cooperation. 5) Take on together the responsibilities that fall to the great powers. The language is rhetorical, but behind the smoke emerges Chinese anxiety not to be “surrounded, contained and suffocated” by the network of alliances relaunched by Joe Biden.
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