Iran, in its retaliation against Israel, has entrusted the first blow to a wave of suicide drones. Move followed by the use of missiles.
The choice of drones was foreseen and predictable, as they are warfare systems that Tehran has developed with many resources in recent years. Testing them on an infinite number of chessboards, from the Middle East to Ukraine, where they are part of the Russian bombing of cities and infrastructures.
The Shahed and Mojaher, along with other models, were developed by drawing direct experiences from the Pasdaran while, at the same time, sending dozens of them to allied militias, starting with the Houthis in Yemen. These very fighters have demonstrated effectiveness in the past with operations conducted against targets in Saudi Arabia, tactics followed carefully by their Iranian instructors and military industry technicians. They tried to improve them, modified them and took care to verify their adversaries’ countermeasures to try to overcome them with “swarm” actions, with a large number of aircraft deployed to saturate the defenses. In fact, in the Ukrainian skies they were used on targets and to “divert” anti-aircraft fire.
And that’s what they seem to have done for revenge against Israel, though the IDF shield is certainly of a superior level and capable of keeping up with aircraft that are certainly not fast. Experts have calculated that a drone pulled from Iranian territory can take almost nine hours before “arriving” on its targets; therefore, there is time to intercept them at long distance, with missile batteries and fighters kept in flight for a long time by a massive deployment of American and British tanker planes, which appeared on Saturday afternoon in the quadrant between Cyprus and the Arabian peninsula. Aircraft mobilized by the White House to reinforce Israel’s protection. Inexpensive compared to sophisticated equipment, buildable in large numbers, exportable to raise cash and help “friends”, the mullahs’ drones have appeared on various fronts, including the maritime dimension. Vehicles “fired” at merchant ships and oil tankers “connected to the Jewish State”, a formula that allowed Tehran to go hunting for shipping in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. Equipment paired with boardings, like the one that occurred a few hours ago against a Portuguese cargo ship west of Hormuz. A demonstrative action that follows threats – not new – from the Navy command to block the strategic strait if necessary. Serious provocation and act of piracy to create “volume” at the time of the challenge with Jerusalem.
Unmanned aerial vehicles represent however only one of the spears in the arsenal of the Islamic Republic. For years Tehran has been investing money to create a large missile force that allowed flexible tactics. An indirect consequence also of what was suffered during the conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, when the two countries engaged in a duel with Soviet-designed Scud carriers. Another era compared to the availability of the Khomeinist war apparatus.
Iranian scientists, with the assistance of Russians, Chinese and North Koreans, have built a large “quiver” piece by piece. Here are the Fateh 110 and Zulghar missiles supplied to the Shiite militias (up to 700 kilometers of range), then the carriers for in-depth actions, from the Haji Qasem dedicated to General Soleimani (1,400 km) to the Sejir (2,500), then the cruise , recently seen in Houthi positions but also in Iraqi militant bases. These are just some of the dozen “types” that came out of the factories, with a constant commitment to extending the operational “arm” and precision.
In this regard, the experts, quoted by the media, have always indicated that a ballistic device fired from Iranian territory needs 12 minutes to reach the Jewish state while a cruise takes two hours.
The central point, however, is not technical but strategic: for the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel and only “tomorrow” will tell us if we are at a new dramatic turning point for a region without peace.
