There is no better demonstration of how much things have changed than the fact that the fourth anniversary of the Covid pandemic has passed absolutely silently. At this point on March 9, 2020, when all of Italy was declared a “red zone”, it seems very far away. And we don’t talk about Covid anymore, except when it comes to setting up Commissions to condemn the actions of the then Conte II government. But this also prevented us from doing one serious cold reflection on the toll of the pandemic.
Instead, both the Economist, which continues to compile the most updated database on Covid deaths in the world, and the New York Times deal with it with a comment by David Wallace-Wells: both dismantle some clichés about the pandemic.
The official deaths from Covid, a count that is based on the tests actually carried out in the various countries, amount overall to 7 million. The Economist, however, analyzing excess deaths (an indicator used for the first time in the world in an article in the Corriere written by Claudio Cancelli and Luca Foresti), estimates that the deaths caused by the pandemic – either directly due to viruses, or due to the virus as a contributory cause, or because the virus has precluded from accessing medical care for other pathologies — whether over four times as much, 28.5 million. «This number – explains the weekly – represents the gap between the number of people who died in a given region in a given period of time, regardless of the cause, and the number of deaths that would have been expected if a particular circumstance had not occurred », in this case if there had not been the Covid epidemic.
With this method the Economist estimates that in Italy there were 50% more deaths than those recorded, between 300 thousand and 310 thousand deaths overall (against the 196,376 officially registered). Based on this estimate, our country (see graph below) remains one of those that have recorded a higher number of victims in relation to the population. From these numbers it can also be seen that Swedish policy, based on citizens taking responsibility instead of bans, worked.
Above all, one unexpected fact emerges from the Economist’s analysis: the countries that have had the most victims are not Western onesdemonstrating that the efficiency of health systems and access to the vaccine were key factors in preventing Covid deaths.
«The most serious impact of the pandemic occurred not in the United States or Great Britain, but inEastern Europe, a region that featured a catastrophic mix of aging populations, weak healthcare systems, and often incapable or indifferent central governments.
Of all the great nations of the world, according to this analysis, the Russia she’s the one who fared the worst” explains David Wallace-Wells. Also in Indiawhich declares 533 thousand official deaths from Covid, the pandemic has caused a massacre: again according to Economist estimates, the deaths were between 2.8 and 10 million, in the best case 5 times those declared, in the worst 18 times .
If, however, we analyze the victims over 65, we see that Italy, Europe and North America have had many fewer than the others in relation to their population. Countries (see chart below).
«When controlling for demographic differences, the pandemic was saddest not in the “failed rich states” of the Anglosphere or in the middle-income ones of Eastern Europe, but in the poorest countries in the world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africajust as one might have predicted at the beginning of 2020. The hardest hit was Uganda, which had a demographically adjusted death rate seven times higher than that of the United States. Those immediately after most affected in the Economist table are ZambiaThe Chadit Zimbabwe and the Mozambique. Two other African countries follow – Ethiopia And Malawi – before the first non-African countries, Bahrain and Afghanistan” writes the New York Times journalist. I am Countries with non-existent health systems and where the vaccination campaign arrived years late compared to North America or Europe. The African deaths seemed to be fewer only because in Africa there are fewer 0ver 65s than in Europe.
Finally, from the Economist’s analysis it emerges that i vaccineswhich also caused victims, overall defended the population from much worse consequences.
(This text was published in the Press Review, the newsletter that the Corriere reserves for its subscribers: to receive it free for 30 days just subscribe to Il Punto, and you can do so here)
