During a recent visit to an air base in the Tver region, Pres Vladimir Putin he stated that the alarms of a possible Russian attack on NATO are one “pure nonsense”but but warned that any Western air base hosting fighter-bombers F-16 intended to be delivered to Ukraine would be a “legitimate target” for the Kremlin forces.
On the same occasion, the President of the Russian Federation recalled that the F-16 “They are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and we will also have to take this into account when organizing our combat operations”underlining however that the fighter-bombers will not be able to change the fate of the conflict because “We will destroy their warplanes just as we destroy their tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment, including multiple rocket launchers”.
In fact, it is also believed in the West that a few dozen F-16s (there is talk of 42 examples to be delivered in a period of time ranging from 2024 to the end of 2025) they will not be a game changer in the Ukrainian war scenario, although the fighters could be used to strengthen Kiev’s ability to hit Russian targets with long-range missile attacks and with the use of guided bombs such as Jdams.
Pilot training and Putin’s bluff
Contesting Russian control of the airspace above various targets, such as those on the Crimean peninsula, will be very difficult – bordering on impossible – and will also depend on the skills of the pilots.
Just talking about Ukrainian pilots, last March 22 it was made known that the former have initial training completed for the F-16s in the United Kingdom, and President Putin’s threats regarding the possibility of hitting the bases from which the fighter-bombers delivered to Ukraine depart must be read in this sense: it is about propaganda to strike Western public opinion, considered particularly receptive and influential by the Kremlin, in a pattern already seen on the occasion of the repeated “warnings” of nuclear escalation. The Russian one is therefore yet another bluff to undermine the stability of public opinion in NATO countries, but let’s still try to hypothesize some scenarios in which Russia decides to eliminate the threat of F-16 fighters.
Scenario 1: raid against NATO bases
The worst one it is certainly what President Putin feared from Tver, i.e. the bombing of the bases from which the F-16s depart for Ukraine. The strike it would undoubtedly be carried out with cruise missiles, launched from bombers/fighters or from the Kilo-class submarines that continue to target Ukraine from the Black Sea, and such an action would trigger the Alliance’s response according to the well-known “article 5” of the Treaty.
A collective response of a military or non-military nature but in any case in support of the attacked country. It is unclear where the F-16s were modified for use by the Ukrainian Air Force: probably in Romania or Poland, which could therefore become targets
Scenario 2: felling during transfer
A second scenario, as well unlikely because it is very difficult to implement, it would see the attempted destruction of the fighters during their transfer flight once they entered Ukrainian airspace. In this case, Russia should have the ability to immediately understand when aircraft take off (and Russian Early Warning capabilities have been crippled with the shooting down of two A-50 aircraft) and have its armed fighters take off on alert of long-range air-to-air missiles launched well within the not yet occupied Ukrainian territory, therefore exposing them to the reaction of adversary air defenses.
Scenario 3: attack on convoys carrying F-16s
One third scenario would be to hit the land convoys that could transport the fighters to their bases, but even in this case Moscow would have to have a intelligence network capable of giving early warning so as to destroy trucks while they are on the road, as well as having an aerial surveillance capability to guide missiles towards moving targets, so once again it is a possibility very implausible because it is difficult to implement.
Scenario 4: new strikes on Ukrainian air bases
One last scenario, this time more likely, would be to hit the Ukrainian air bases intended to host the F-16s. In this case the targets would be easier to identify as it is known that the bases need to be adapted because the fighters require high standard runways and reinforced hangars to protect them from bombing when they are on the ground.
It is unclear how many Ukrainian air bases could meet those requirements, and Russia would be sure to quickly target those that could accommodate the fighters once they are delivered.
