What to do with Banca MPS shares? The positive mood on Italian banks, the improvement in budget results and the speculative appeal of a possible takeover have contributed to the stock market rally of the world’s oldest bank in recent months. It now remains to be seen whether there is any credit institution interested in taking over Rocca Salimbeni. In this sense, BPER Banca seems to have taken its time once again. The president of Unipol, Carlo Cimbri, excludes that there may currently be an interest from BPER Banca for MPS Bank, but leaves a window open. A few days before July 2, when the Treasury will be able to sell further shares of Rocca Salimbeni, Cimbri underlined that “there is nothing in the immediate future of BPER Bank“, of which Unipol is a 19.9% shareholder.
“Of course – he observes – the Italian market is small, the candidates are few and the names are always the same, but there is nothing with which it can enrich the debate”. “The new CEO Gianni Franco Papa – argues Cimbri – has an already outlined path ahead of him which concerns BPER Banca as it is”. However, the president of Unipol does not close the doors, explaining that “there is no clear answer”. In any case, for some time BPER Banca will not be the one to give that answer, since “it has its own path of absorption of the realities purchased in recent years” i.e. Carige. “The times of companies are different from those of the news” Cimbri then clarifies.
That the Treasury is evaluating the divestment of shares in subsidiaries, starting from Poste and Eni, is no mystery. The restriction on the 26.7% of Banca MPS owned by the MEF expires on 2 July and the sale of a 10% package would also allow for the realization of a decent capital gain. Banca MPS today capitalizes 5.8 billion51% more than at the beginning of the year and more than 2.5 times the 2.5 billion of the last capital increase in November 2022.
It is to be excluded that the interested parties may be Intesa Sanpaolowhich in terms of aggregations has already given, e Unicredit, whose CEO Andrea Orcel also recently reiterated that “there are very few all-in acquisition targets.” Also the CEO of BPM Bank, Giuseppe Castagna, has called himself out, convinced that “for the moment there are no circumstances that make us see greater growth when considering aggregation operations”. Among the names going around remains that of Unipolwhich already controls 19.9% of BPER Banca and 19.7% of People’s Bank of Sondrio. By joining Banca MPS, in addition to creating a third banking hub, it could leverage bancassurance, taking over from AXA as an industrial partner.
Banca MPS shares: prices bounce towards the downward trendline
Shares on Piazza Affari MPS Bank they seem to be set upwards in the short term, despite the negative performance recorded in yesterday’s session (-1.65%). After an opening in line with the previous closing, in fact, the prices immediately began a strongly bearish trend which led them to reach a minimum at the 4.453 level.
After the high reached last May 17 at the 5.364 level, the stock drastically reversed its course with a sudden and violent bearish movementalways below a very clear downward trendline, until the fall stopped near the support present at 4.169 (June 14).
From that moment on, prices began to rise with a rebound trend which, although slow, appears solid, also because it is characterized by a series of days with ever-increasing lows. For the immediate future, therefore, it is necessary to carefully monitor the resistance represented by the aforementioned medium-term negative trendline, beyond which, as is probable, there will be a strong directional movement in a bullish direction.
From an operational point of view, therefore, entry into long positions is advisable upon exceeding the 4.587 level with a target around 4.888 euros, while bearish positions can only be opened upon violation of the 4.453 level with a target very close to the 4.169 level. L’algorithmic setting, however, sees prices still hovering below the Supertrend indicator while both the Parabolic Sar indicator and the 25 moving average turned bearish in late May. The Macd indicator has also just crossed its Signal. Furthermore, it should be noted that the RSI oscillator is positioned in the “neutrality” area near level 44.
The short-term performance of the BANCA MPS stock
