Speculation in Spain is reigning supreme with the prices of all commercial categories, especially extra virgin and lampante, fluctuating significantly.
L’extra virgin olive oil in Spainafter having touched and exceeded 8 euros/kg twice in June, it fell twice below 7.9 euros/kg according to the PoolRed portal, reaching the minimum on 24 June at 7.85 euros/kg.
The glaring it came close to 7.4 euros/kg on 12 June, then falling back to 7.1 euros/kg on 22 June and rising to 7.2 euros/kg as of June 24th. However, the minimum price, just above 7 euros/kg, is at the end of May.
L’virgin olive oil it started at 7.5 euro/kg at the end of May, reaching the highest point in June at 7.6 euro/kg (3 June) and the lowest point at 7.4 euro/kg on 22 June. Today the price is 7.45 euros/kg, therefore practically equal to that of the end of May.
The roller coaster of the oil market in Spain illustrates a situation of uncertainty regarding consumption, exports, stocks and production prospects. There is no area in which there is certainty. Sales of extra virgin olive oil in Spain were slowing but the government has decided to eliminate VAT, therefore giving a potential boost to domestic trade. Exports show no signs of a significant slowdown in the most important market, the United States, but are struggling in other parts of the world. Stocks are lower than last year but the bottlers’ warehouses are full. The production prospects for the next olive oil campaign are positive but alternate between euphoria (campaign above 1.5 million tonnes) and realism (average campaign of 1.2-1.3 million tonnes). It is the perfect scenario to trigger speculative dynamics, as is actually happening.
The olive oil market in Italy
In Italy, vice versa, the oil market appears stable with a slight downward adjustment in Bari, at 9.5 euro/kg according to Ismea Mercati and according to the Bari Chamber of Commerce (9.4-9.6 euro/kg). A situation that reflects both the decline in inventories, hence the substantial stability of prices, and the decrease in availability of high quality oil, hence the very slight depreciation. Is that the market continues to demand good and excellent quality extra virgin olive oil, as demonstrated by the slight growth in prices in Ragusa (10.6 euro/kg. +1%, according to Ismea Mercati).
In Italy we look with a certain optimism to the next olive oil campaign where some territories are struggling but where Puglia is not expected to have a slow year. The optimism is seasoned by the desire to return the market to that of an owl product in supermarkets, with therefore less need for Italian oil in quantitative terms.
