The employment data is bad and the Nasdaq turns downwards with an hourly dynamic that is out of statistics, about 10 hours in a row downwards. Thanks to the bad data from the US world of work, Nvidia drops from area 141 to 131, losing more than -6% from the highs, finally a reversal that could bring the stock back to earth which just today had detached Microsoft’s capitalization by more than 100 billion dollars.
US EMPLOYMENT DATA IS VERY BAD
Initial and ongoing claims for unemployment benefits worsen again and continue on their way above their 2-year average, one of the signs of deterioration in the labor market together with the average breaking upwards by the unemployment rate itself . The current data for continuous requests is the worst since January, at a distance of only 1k units, essentially very little is needed to see a further worsening of the dynamics of the labor market, a macro situation already anticipated for months in previous reports and on which the current performance of the stock market as a whole. The continuous requests figure stands at 1828k units, worse than the previous figure and worse than expectations. The data of initial requests stands at 238kbetter than the previous figure but worse than expectations which saw a drop to 235k units. The 4-week average rises to 232.75k, the worst figure since September 2023. In practice, what was said in the macro analyzes of US employment data is manifesting itself: the unemployment rate could increase very strongly and could drag stock markets downwards, forcing the Fed to lower rates quickly. The next labor market data scheduled for early July will tell us the truth about the current situation.
NVIDIA COLLAPSES AND NASDAQ FOLLOWS
An Nvidia-dependent Nasdaq. Nvidia drops from highs of -6% and the Nasdaq goes from positive to negative with a decline of approximately -1% from the reference price of the day. We certainly cannot define it as a real collapse, those fall within the downward window of over -2%, but compared to the dynamics seen in recent days this seems like a very strong decline, without respite on the hourly charts but with attempts to rebound on the shorter timeframes, movements that suggest how the market attempted to support prices even at very high levels. We will watch this evening’s close of the Nasdaq to get a clearer overview of what could happen tomorrow.
The sharp decline of the Nasdaq on 1h chart on the decline of Nvidia – Source:XStation
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