Before and after the pandemic, traveling is not the same: holidays today have a higher price. Generalized increases have in fact mortified the desire to recover that lost mobility which, in 2022, had brought tourism to a decisive restart. In that year of revenge against the virus, Italians’ long holidays also approached pre-Covid levels, but in 2023 – ISTAT certifies – they slowed down, stopping at -19% compared to 2019, short ones at -31%. There were 75 million fewer overnight stays (–19.6%), indicating that many stayed at home.
A sudden braking, therefore, in the pursuit of normality, which however does not scare the operators of the sector who this year smell the air of recovery, photographed by an encouraging +8.9% compared to the same period of the previous year in the turnover of the first quarter (Assoviaggi and Cst data). The comments of those who have a head in the sector help to understand how tourism is changing between inflation, increases in fuel prices and services, in the face of real wages that have remained at a standstill for twenty years: «The signal is that the high segment of the market , who usually travel in winter, has not had any declines, while the summer customer will certainly need to go on holiday paying close attention to the price”. Word of Franco Gattinoninumber one of the FTO, the Federation of Organized Tourism, as well as president of the network of the same name which brings together 1,500 travel agencies.
After the economic and climate challenges of 2023, the warmest months of 2024 are also shaping up to be the most expensive. Those who want to leave arrive with shortness of breath and a great desire for protection: they have a more prudent and selective approach – they say in the agency -, they ask for tailor-made holidays covered by insurance formulas and guarantees of assistance. More and more holidays personalized, oriented towards sustainability and digital innovation (with extensive use of artificial intelligence also in planning), and split over time (they call it deseasonalisation) due to the lengthening of the tourist season due to global warming. Go in search of colder climateschasing places rich in water in which to refresh, it is no coincidence that it comes in second place among travel trends in the research commissioned by a well-known portal which involved 27 thousand travelers in 33 countries on the planet: first there is only the desire to reinvent yourself, oscillating between physical and virtual reality.
Low cost nostalgia. But will it really be a year of recovery or will the long slowdown that began in 2023 continue? If we look at the cost of flights, there is something to worry about. Low cost at rock-bottom prices is now a thing of the past. In the Far West of price increases (national flights grew on average by 37.8%, on an annual basis, in 2023) theAntitrustwho wants to see clearly in particular about the prices for Sardinia and Sicily during periods of peak demand, linked to the unscrupulous use of algorithms (the investigation will close at the end of the year). Low cost airlines hold over 60% of the market and are responsible for an anomalous situation in Italian skies. “Not they do planning and often refuse to collaborate with travel agencies and tour operators”, attacks Gattinoni. And as the group’s general manager keenly observes, Sergio Testi, the surge in the cost of fuel does not fully explain the high cost of flights: «The prices of domestic and international trips have grown proportionally more than intercontinental ones – he analyzes –: this hides a series of factors, not least the speculative as well as inflationary”. So much so that another leap forward, between 5 and 10%, is expected for i airline tickets in the summer months, as a result of booming demand (especially long-haul) which clashes with the reduced supply of airlines, geopolitical tensions and strikes.
They are also suffering road transport for petrol stably high, to which another increase is added from 1 July, that of the electronic motorway toll of the main market operator (see box opposite). In 2023 the car, which remains the most used means of transport (58.8% of trips), fell for the fourth consecutive year, aligning itself with 2019 (56.5%) in favor of collective means of transport (plane, train, ship and coach), which returned competitive after the lockdown. Can car rental be an alternative? Yes, but watch out for the oppressive clauses that have always been targeted by the Antitrust Authority, which has fined some of the main companies a total of 18 million.
The well served is at the table. The entire sector, which is redirecting itself towards new paths to erase the memory of Covid, is being affected by the increases in service tariffs. Added to the cost of transport are the bills of hotels and motels grew by 14%. There are also restaurants (+5.3%) and amusement parks (+8.55%) adding salt to the wounds. The voice “hospitality and catering services” is the one that remains highest, also in 2024, in the Istat consumer price index updated in April: higher both on March 2024 (+2.1%), and in terms of trend rate on April 2023 (+4, 4%). In short, the well served is on the table!
Inflation is always the first to stand accused when it comes to generalized price increases. But it is significantly decreasing compared to 2023, while the increases add to each other, fueling an endless domino effect. Vacation packages today require a bigger wallet on average 16.1%. And when prices rise, it is unlikely that they will then fall: «Italy has always been subject to a marked increase in prices “hysterical” – comments Franco Gattinoni –. In our domestic market, if the previous year’s season recorded good or excellent sales, we find large price increases without any other evaluations. While if the season was critical, the maximum action for the year is maintenance. A behavior mainly due to the scarce presence of hotel chains in Italy and to the fact that the attitude of individual hoteliers does not take into account the trends of the last 3/5 years, the potential of new markets, but is based on the results of the last 3 months of the the previous summer.”
The holiday loan. In such a framework, in which planning succumbs to the blows of short-term interest, the tourism map it is redesigned by new trends, yes, but also, at the same time, by the need to contain expenses which – consumer associations denounce – risk denying a large portion of the population the pleasure of a holiday which is also health and personal well-being. There income compression and the difficult geopolitical situation, aggravated by the latest wars, together with the increase in the costs of services, is feared by 82% of travel agencieshttps://consumatori.coop.it/?p=64564&preview=true and tour operators, according to analysis by the Organized Tourism Federation. Italians want to travel but are increasingly finding it difficult to do so, while foreign arrivals in Italy are growing: at home and abroad, we are no longer tourists.
There is a post-pandemic situation, then, to take into account from 2022 onwards, which sees a more informed and demanding traveller, who requires personalized services (62% of the sample). But there also risks being a period post-inflation, where we would all like to be able to travel; It’s a shame that we don’t have the money to do it, except by asking for financing or help from those who, like grandparents and parents, have already taken holidays far and wide, in better times.
Where are we going this year. Travel preferences are changing, moving mainly towards destinations North Americans, followed by the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean. Italy is also arousing interest: those thinking of returning to travel in the Bel Paese are growing (68%, +8% on 2023, according to the Coop report on consumption), but also abroad (42%, equal to + 7%). Between the first quarter of 2024 and the same period of 2023, data from the Gattinoni group say that, in terms of bookings, North America rose by 46%, the Indian Ocean by 59%, Africa by 40%, East soars at +166% (between Thailand, Vietnam and India; Japan alone at +99%). In strong braking on the other hand, they are the Middle East and North Africa due to ongoing conflicts (–45%) and Europe is lagging behind (–3%), especially towards destinations bordering the theaters of war.
The most expensive countries. Spain and Portugal, which before the pandemic were the most attractive countries in terms of convenience and charm of the cities, have lost the greatest number of positions due to price increases: today Iberian peninsula it is aligned or almost aligned with the most popular capitals in Northern Europe. In the black jersey we also find Holland, Belgium, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy.
